Predicting the Impact of Climate Change on the Future Distribution of Paederus fuscipes Curtis, 1826, in China Based on the MaxEnt Model

Abstract

Paederus fuscipes Curtis, 1826, belongs to the Coleoptera order, Staphylinidae family, and Paederus genus (Fabricius, 1775). It has a wide distribution and strong invasive and environmental adaptation capabilities. As a predatory natural enemy of agricultural and forestry pests, understanding its suitable habitat is crucial for the control of other pests. This study, for the first time, uses the MaxEnt model and ArcGIS software, combining known distribution information of P. fuscipes and climate environmental factors to predict the current and future suitable habitat distribution of this insect. The key environmental variables affecting the distribution of P. fuscipes have been identified as mean diurnal range (mean of monthly (max temp-min temp)) (bio2), isothermality (Bio2/Bio7) (*100) (bio3), minimum temperature of the coldest month (bio6), temperature annual range (bio5-bio6) (bio7), mean temperature of the driest quarter (bio9), mean temperature of the coldest quarter (bio11), precipitation of the wettest month (bio13), precipitation of the driest month (bio14), and precipitation seasonality (coefficient of variation) (bio15). The highly suitable areas for P. fuscipes in China are mainly distributed in the hilly regions of Shandong, the North China Plain, and the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River Plain, with a total suitable area of 118.96 × 104 km2, accounting for 12.35% of China’s total area. According to future climate change scenarios, it is predicted that the area of highly and lowly suitable regions will significantly decrease, while moderately suitable regions will increase (except for the 2090s, SSP2-4.5 scenario). These research findings provide important theoretical support for pest control and ecological conservation applications.