Predicting the habitat expansion of the invasive roach Rutilus rutilus (Actinopterygii, Cyprinidae), in Great Britain

Elliott, J. Alex; Henrys, Peter A.; Tanguy, Maliko; Cooper, Jonathan; Maberly, Stephen C.

doi:10.1007/s10750-015-2181-9

Cited by 12 publications

(8 citation statements)

References 15 publications

(17 reference statements)

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“…The predicted directional shifts in the climate spaces of the model fishes were consistent with those from other fish‐based climate change studies, with strong evidence in both freshwater and marine systems that range changes will occur in most fishes due to climate change (Jackson & Mandrak, ; Chu et al ., ; Rahel & Olden, ; Jones et al ., ; Elliott et al ., ). Whilst the direction and magnitude of range shifts are shaped by the species‐specific sensitivity to the changes (e.g.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 97%

Shifts in the climate space of temperate cyprinid fishes due to climate change are coupled with altered body sizes and growth rates

Ruiz‐Navarro

Gillingham

Britton

2016

Global Change Biology

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Predictions of species responses to climate change often focus on distribution shifts, although responses can also include shifts in body sizes and population demographics. Here, shifts in the distributional ranges (‘climate space’), body sizes (as maximum theoretical body sizes, L∞) and growth rates (as rate at which L∞ is reached, K) were predicted for five fishes of the Cyprinidae family in a temperate region over eight climate change projections. Great Britain was the model area, and the model species were Rutilus rutilus, Leuciscus leuciscus, Squalius cephalus, Gobio gobio and Abramis brama. Ensemble models predicted that the species' climate spaces would shift in all modelled projections, with the most drastic changes occurring under high emissions; all range centroids shifted in a north‐westerly direction. Predicted climate space expanded for R. rutilus and A. brama, contracted for S. cephalus, and for L. leuciscus and G. gobio, expanded under low‐emission scenarios but contracted under high emissions, suggesting the presence of some climate‐distribution thresholds. For R. rutilus, A. brama, S. cephalus and G. gobio, shifts in their climate space were coupled with predicted shifts to significantly smaller maximum body sizes and/or faster growth rates, aligning strongly to aspects of temperature‐body size theory. These predicted shifts in L∞ and K had considerable consequences for size‐at‐age per species, suggesting substantial alterations in population age structures and abundances. Thus, when predicting climate change outcomes for species, outputs that couple shifts in climate space with altered body sizes and growth rates provide considerable insights into the population and community consequences, especially for species that cannot easily track their thermal niches.

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Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 97%

Shifts in the climate space of temperate cyprinid fishes due to climate change are coupled with altered body sizes and growth rates

Ruiz‐Navarro

Gillingham

Britton

2016

Global Change Biology

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“…With presence-only data no information is collected when a species was not seen. This difference makes presence-absence data more information-rich, although presenceonly data can still be hugely important for assessing biodiversity patterns and trends (Elliott et al, 2015;Huang & Frimpong, 2016).…”

Section: Ecological Currencymentioning

confidence: 99%

Integrating freshwater biodiversity data sources: Key challenges and opportunities

Jarvis,

Mackay,

Risser

et al. 2023

Freshwater Biology

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In order to better quantify spatial and temporal patterns in freshwater biodiversity, and potential underlying drivers of change, we must utilise the increasingly broad range of data available on freshwater ecosystems. Statistical advances in the field of integrated modelling provide new opportunities to further our understanding through the combined and simultaneous analysis of these diverse datasets. We briefly introduce integrated modelling in the context of freshwater biodiversity and outline the key steps involved in its implementation, from data collection to analysis. We highlight both opportunities and challenges for the application of integrated approaches. To illustrate the potential for integrated models to improve our understanding of freshwater biodiversity compared to standard approaches, we combine two datasets collected using different methods to model the distribution of Agabus water beetles in England. The integrated model had greater power to detect covariate effects on Agabus distribution, and reduced parameter uncertainty compared with analysis using only a single dataset. We show that integrated methods have the potential to increase our understanding of freshwater systems and enable us to make full use of the diversity of freshwater data available.

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“…[71]) and ecosystems (e.g. [87,88]). Future Flows has also been used to inform national-scale assessments of groundwater recharge [89], to underpin UK water company assessments and regulation and to provide assessments of water availability across the UK for the National Climate Change Risk Assessment [90].…”

Section: Using the New High-resolution Information With Confidencementioning

confidence: 99%

Using high-resolution climate change information in water management: a decision-makers' perspective

Orr

Ekström

Charlton

et al. 2021

Phil. Trans. R. Soc. A.

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The UK Climate Change Act requires the Environment Agency to report the risks it faces from climate change and actions taken to address these. Derived information from projections is critical to understanding likely impacts in water management. In 2019, the UK published an ensemble of high-resolution model simulations. The UKCP Local (2.2 km) projections can resolve smaller scale physical processes that determine rainfall and other variables at subdaily time-scales with the potential to provide new insights into extreme events, storm runoff and drainage management. However, simulations also need to inform adaptation. The challenge ahead is to identify and provide derived products without the need for further analysis by decision-makers. These include a wider evaluation of uncertainty, narratives about rainfall change across the projections and bias-corrected datasets. Future flood maps, peak rainfall estimates, uplift factors and future design storm profiles also need detailed guidance to support their use. Central government support is justified in the provision of up-to-date impacts information to inform flood risk management, given the large risks and exposure of all sectors. The further development of projections would benefit from greater focus and earlier scoping with industry representatives, operational tool developers and end users. This article is part of a discussion meeting issue ‘Intensification of short-duration rainfall extremes and implications for flash flood risks’.

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Predicting the habitat expansion of the invasive roach Rutilus rutilus (Actinopterygii, Cyprinidae), in Great Britain

Abstract: The NERC and CEH trademarks and logos ('the Trademarks') are registered trademarks of NERC in the UK and other countries, and may not be used without the prior written consent of the Trademark owner. 1Predicting the habitat expansion of the invasive roach Rutilus rutilus (Actinopterygii,

Cited by 12 publications

References 15 publications

Shifts in the climate space of temperate cyprinid fishes due to climate change are coupled with altered body sizes and growth rates

Shifts in the climate space of temperate cyprinid fishes due to climate change are coupled with altered body sizes and growth rates

Integrating freshwater biodiversity data sources: Key challenges and opportunities

Using high-resolution climate change information in water management: a decision-makers' perspective

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