Predicting the future redistribution of Chinese white pine Pinus armandii Franch. Under climate change scenarios in China using species distribution models

Ning, Hang; Ling, Lei; Sun, Xiangcheng; Kang, Xiaotong; Chen, Hui

doi:10.1016/j.gecco.2020.e01420

Cited by 23 publications

(16 citation statements)

References 51 publications

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“…Deep roots as observed for some of those three most resilient species ( T. plicata , P. menziesii and A. grandis ) allow for water uptake from deeper soil layers (Antos et al, 2016) and for maintaining stomal conductance and photosynthesis (Puritch, 1973), and keeping stems hydrated allows growth during drought. The low resilient P. armandii originates from China and has been recorded as very sensitive to high temperature and low precipitation (Ning et al, 2021), which is consistent with our observation. For both Picea species, their shallow root systems (Ballian et al, 2016; Martin‐Benito et al, 2018) may contribute to their low resilience, which is also in line with our observations of significant leaf loss and crown dieback in trees of these species after 3 years of consecutive drought (2018–2020) at our site, as well as elsewhere in the Netherlands (Reichgelt & Sinke, 2020) and across Europe (Dell'Oro et al, 2020; Lopatka, 2019).…”

Section: Discussionsupporting

confidence: 93%

Growth resilience of conifer species decreases with early, long‐lasting and intense droughts but cannot be explained by hydraulic traits

et al. 2022

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1. Drought events may reduce growth and survival of conifer trees. The effects of the intensity and timing of drought on the growth resilience, including growth reductions during drought and recovery of growth after drought, remain, however, highly uncertain.2. Growth resilience of 20 conifer species to 11 dry years was compared in a common garden experiment. We assessed (a) the relationships among growth resistance, recovery and resilience, (b) the impacts of different drought dimensions (intensity, onset and length) on resistance and (c) the underlying mechanisms in terms of growth potential and hydraulic traits.3. Droughts led to 22% reduction in stem growth for 85% of species, but most species (85%) were resilient due to high recovery. Growth resistance decreased with an early onset of drought (significant for 55% of species), and longer-lasting (35%) and intense droughts (60%). While fast-growing species and slow-growing species were similar in resistance and recovery, fast-growing species were more resilient. Unexpectedly, resilience could not be explained by hydraulic traits, possibly because the species grew on poor sandy soils and were acclimated to drought with large hydraulic safety margins. Synthesis.Our study shows that in a mild maritime climate almost all conifer species are resilient to drought, and that putative hydraulic traits may be less important here for growth resilience. It also highlights the importance of addressing multiple dimensions of drought, that is, timing, duration and severity, to predict species responses to climate change.

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Section: Discussionsupporting

confidence: 93%

Growth resilience of conifer species decreases with early, long‐lasting and intense droughts but cannot be explained by hydraulic traits

et al. 2022

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“…(Varol et al, 2021). Therefore, it is stated that the most destructive effects of climate change will appear in agriculture (Dellal, 2014;Aktaş, 2020) and the forestry sector (Gomez-Pineda et al, 2021;Ning et al, 2021;Varol et al, 2021).…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Aside from this, the plant's response to environmental factors is closely related to the genetic structure of the plant, and since plants belonging to the same species have different genetic structures, they can react to the same growing conditions and stress conditions at different levels (Yigit et al, 2016;Koç, 2019;Sevik et al, 2019;Ozel et al, 2021a, b;Savas et al, 2021). It is predicted that the most significant effect of the global climate change process will demonstrate itself in temperature increase and decrease in precipitation, and these factors are the main factors restricting the distribution of many tree species (Ning et al, 2021). Therefore, since the origins that are the best resistant and adaptable to the stress factors that may occur due to these factors have a higher chance of survival, determining drought-resistant origins in breeding studies and using them in afforestation studies may help to reduce the effects of global climate change.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Changes That May Occur in Temperature, Rain, and Climate Types Due to Global Climate Change: The Example of Düzce

Koç

2021

Turkish JAF Sci.Tech.

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Global climate change is defined as a process that affects all living things and ecosystems globally and is claimed as the most critical problem of the current century. Turkey, which is shown as one of the most affected countries by this process, is among the “countries at risk.” It is stated that the temperature will increase throughout the country until 2100, and this increase may reach 6 ºC. In order to determine the possible effects of global climate change, it is necessary to predict how the climate structure and basic parameters may change. From this point of view, this study is aimed to determine the change of temperature and precipitation, climate types (according to De Martonne, Lang, and Emberger climate classification) which are the most critical climate parameters until 2050 and 2070 in Düzce, one of the important cities of our country. The current situation and possible changes in 2050 and 2070 have been compared using RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 scenarios. As a result of the study, the temperature, precipitation, and related climate types would change significantly throughout the province of Düzce, and this change will show itself as a significant temperature increase and change in precipitation regime. In addition, a shift in climate types towards continental climate types is predicted until 2070. In order to avoid the destructive effects of global climate change, it is recommended to take measures on a sectoral basis.

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“…The two focal species PA and PT belong to the genus Pinus , family Pinaceae , and are widespread in Qinling. They play important ecological roles in conserving nutrients, preventing erosion, and promoting regional socioeconomic development (Critchfield & Little, 1966 ; Dong et al, 2016 ; Ning et al, 2021 ).…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Disentangling the effects of species interactions and environmental factors on the spatial pattern and coexistence of two congenericPinusspecies in a transitional climatic zone

Yang

Ying

et al. 2022

Ecology and Evolution

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Congeneric species are critical for understanding the underlying ecological mechanisms of biodiversity maintenance. Ecological mechanisms such as conspecific negative density dependence, species differences in life‐history stages related to habitat preference, and limiting similarity are known to influence plant fitness, thereby influencing species coexistence and biodiversity. However, our understanding of these phenomena as they apply to coexistence among coniferous species is limited. We studied two congeneric Pinus species, Pinus armandii (PA) and Pinus tabulaeformis (PT), both of which are common pioneer species typically succeeded by oaks ( Quercus ), in a 25‐ha warm temperate deciduous broad‐leaved forest. Here, we addressed the following questions: (1) How do population structures and distributions patterns of these two Pinus species vary with respect to different life‐history stages? (2) Does intra‐ and interspecific competition vary with respect to three life‐history stages? And (3) What are the relative contributions of topographic and soil variables to the spatial distributions of the species across the three life‐history stages? In addressing these questions, we utilized the pair‐correlation function g(r), redundancy analysis (RDA), variance partitioning (VP), and hierarchical partitioning (HP) to identify habitat preferences and conspecific negative density dependence at different life‐history stages from small to large trees. The results revealed that in both Pinus species, individuals in different life‐history stages were subject to significant habitat heterogeneity, with a tendency for small trees to be distributed at higher latitudes that may be represents climate‐change‐driven migration in both species. In addition, the effects of conspecific negative density dependence on PT were stronger than those on PA due to limited dispersal in PT. Furthermore, we found that interspecific competition was weak due to the species differences in resource utilization and preference for key habitats. Our study shows that congeneric Pinus species avoids competition by exploiting distinct habitats and provides insight into forest community structure.

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Predicting the future redistribution of Chinese white pine Pinus armandii Franch. Under climate change scenarios in China using species distribution models

Cited by 23 publications

References 51 publications

Growth resilience of conifer species decreases with early, long‐lasting and intense droughts but cannot be explained by hydraulic traits

Growth resilience of conifer species decreases with early, long‐lasting and intense droughts but cannot be explained by hydraulic traits

Changes That May Occur in Temperature, Rain, and Climate Types Due to Global Climate Change: The Example of Düzce

Disentangling the effects of species interactions and environmental factors on the spatial pattern and coexistence of two congenericPinusspecies in a transitional climatic zone

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