Predicting the Evolution of the 2014–2016 California Current System Marine Heatwave From an Ensemble of Coupled Global Climate Forecasts

Jacox, Michael G.; Tommasi, Désirée; Alexander, Michael A.; Hervieux, Gaëlle; Stock, Charles A.

doi:10.3389/fmars.2019.00497

Cited by 46 publications

(41 citation statements)

References 46 publications

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“…Extreme climate events such as the PMH are an emerging driver of marine ecosystem dynamics with longterm impacts potentially greater than those of slower warming that leads to gradual reorganization and possible evolution and adaptation 58 . Models are successful in forecasting some physical aspects of events such as the PMH 59 ; however, we are still searching for mechanisms to forecast biological change in these complex ecosystems [60][61][62] . Whereas our analyses did not identify mechanisms of biological change, our results do provide a foundation on which to develop hypotheses and test mechanistic links to physical drivers of change for specific taxa, life stages, trophic levels, and thermal niches.…”

Section: Signals Of Recoverymentioning

confidence: 99%

Ecosystem response persists after a prolonged marine heatwave

Suryan

Arimitsu

Coletti

et al. 2021

Sci Rep

146

127

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Some of the longest and most comprehensive marine ecosystem monitoring programs were established in the Gulf of Alaska following the environmental disaster of the Exxon Valdez oil spill over 30 years ago. These monitoring programs have been successful in assessing recovery from oil spill impacts, and their continuation decades later has now provided an unparalleled assessment of ecosystem responses to another newly emerging global threat, marine heatwaves. The 2014–2016 northeast Pacific marine heatwave (PMH) in the Gulf of Alaska was the longest lasting heatwave globally over the past decade, with some cooling, but also continued warm conditions through 2019. Our analysis of 187 time series from primary production to commercial fisheries and nearshore intertidal to offshore oceanic domains demonstrate abrupt changes across trophic levels, with many responses persisting up to at least 5 years after the onset of the heatwave. Furthermore, our suite of metrics showed novel community-level groupings relative to at least a decade prior to the heatwave. Given anticipated increases in marine heatwaves under current climate projections, it remains uncertain when or if the Gulf of Alaska ecosystem will return to a pre-PMH state.

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Section: Signals Of Recoverymentioning

confidence: 99%

Ecosystem response persists after a prolonged marine heatwave

Suryan

Arimitsu

Coletti

et al. 2021

Sci Rep

146

127

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

show abstract

“…The strong regional variation in SST anomalies within the 2014-2016 northeast Pacific MHW is consistent with regionspecific variations worldwide in (i) the frequency of MHWs (Scannell et al, 2016), (ii) the intensity and duration of MHWs (Oliver et al, 2018), (iii) the rate of change of the number of days with extremely cold or warm SST along the coast (Lima and Wethey, 2012), and (iv) the physical forcing of MHWs (Holbrook et al, 2019). The scientific community's lack of understanding of the causes of these regional variations within MHWs, especially events not associated with El Niño, prevents accurate prediction of MHWs and the resulting economic and ecological impacts (Jacox et al, 2019). Here, we link the regional variations in the northeast Pacific MHW to a characteristic regional wind pattern that also occurs during "normal" years but was unusually persistent during the 2015 MHW.…”

Section: The Marine Heat Wave Off Western North America In 2014-16mentioning

confidence: 99%

Regional Structure in the Marine Heat Wave of Summer 2015 Off the Western United States

Fewings

Brown

2019

Front. Mar. Sci.

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“…They further vary in spatial extent and depth depending on the processes that cause and maintain them, as well as the geometry of the regions in which they occur. For instance, MHWs can be locally confined to individual bays 17 , around small islands or along short sections of coastline, or be broadly distributed over regional seas 10,18 , ocean basins 15,19 , or even spanning multiple oceans 20,21 (for a map of major MHW events, see Fig. 1).…”

mentioning

confidence: 99%

Keeping pace with marine heatwaves

Holbrook

Gupta

Oliver

et al. 2020

Nat Rev Earth Environ

247

182

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Marine heatwaves (MHWs) are prolonged extreme oceanic warm water events. They can have devastating impacts on marine ecosystems -for example, causing mass coral bleaching and substantial declines in kelp forests and seagrass meadows -with implications for the provision of ecological goods and services. Effective adaptation and mitigation efforts by marine managers can benefit from improved MHW predictions, which at present are inadequate. In this Perspective, we explore MHW predictability on shortterm, interannual to decadal, and centennial timescales, focusing on the physical processes that offer prediction. While there may be potential predictability of MHWs days to years in advance, accuracy will vary dramatically depending on the regions and drivers. Skilful MHW prediction has the potential to provide critical information and guidance for marine conservation, fisheries and aquaculture management. However, to develop effective prediction systems, better understanding is needed of the physical drivers, subsurface MHWs, and predictability limits. [H1] IntroductionProlonged extreme ocean warming events -also known as marine heatwaves (MHWs) -can severely impact marine ecosystems and the services they provide 1-6 . Yet despite their significance, dedicated and coordinated research only became prominent following the extreme event off Western Australia in 2011 7,8 . Indeed, it was during this event that the term 'marine heatwave' was first used to characterise an extensive, persistent and extreme ocean temperature event 9 (Box 1), spurring a new wave of research into their physical processes and corresponding impacts. Since 2011, MHWs have been observed and analysed both retrospectively and contemporaneously, and are now recognised to occur over various spatio-temporal scales. For example, given the ocean's heat capacity and dynamical scales, MHW events can persist for weeks to years [10][11][12][13][14][15][16] . They further vary in spatial extent and depth depending on the processes that cause and maintain them, as well as the geometry of the regions in which they occur. For instance, MHWs can be locally confined to individual bays 17 , around small islands or along short sections of coastline, or be broadly distributed over regional seas 10,18 , ocean basins 15,19 , or even spanning multiple oceans 20,21 (for a map of major MHW events, see Fig. 1). As well as the physical drivers, the ecological impacts of MHWs have also been studied in considerable depth. The effects include biodiversity loss and changes in species behaviour or performance 3,7 , loss of genetic diversity and adaptive capacity 22 , economic impacts from changes in fishery catch rates 1,[23][24][25] , and mortality or altered performance of farmed aquaculture species 13 .The impacts of MHWs are particularly evident on coral reefs (promoting widespread bleaching, including pan-tropical events 26 ), kelp forests (driving significant loss of kelp forest habitats off the coast of Western Australia, New Zealand, Mexico and the North Atlantic 7,27-30 ...

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Predicting the Evolution of the 2014–2016 California Current System Marine Heatwave From an Ensemble of Coupled Global Climate Forecasts

Cited by 46 publications

References 46 publications

Ecosystem response persists after a prolonged marine heatwave

Ecosystem response persists after a prolonged marine heatwave

Regional Structure in the Marine Heat Wave of Summer 2015 Off the Western United States

Keeping pace with marine heatwaves

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