Predicting the effectiveness of protected areas of Natura 2000 under climate change

Nila, Mst Umme Salma; Beierkuhnlein, Carl; Jaeschke, Anja; Hoffmann, Samuel; Hossain, Lokman

doi:10.1186/s13717-019-0168-6

Cited by 25 publications

(19 citation statements)

References 36 publications

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“…The fine-grained high-velocity areas of the three climate variables rarely coincided in our PAs, suggesting that ecologically different species may face climate change-induced exposure risks very differently. The velocity of GDD peaks in the flatland areas in Southwest Finland, where already modest warming can cause large geographic climate displacement 25 . These findings have alarming implications for conservation planning since this region is characterised by a mixture of high species richness, sparse PA networks and a human-modified matrix between the PAs.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…From the 1,778 protected areas included the Natura 2000 network in mainland Finland we selected 5,068 physically separate Natura 2000 sites (polygons) for this study. Following Nila and Hossein 25 , we refer to these 5,068 sites as 'Natura 2000 PAs' , or simply as 'PAs' . Throughout the European Union, the Natura 2000 network aims to cover the most valuable species and habitats in the 28 member countries (see https://ec.europa.eu/environment/nature/natura2000/index_en.htm).…”

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confidence: 99%

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Fine-grained climate velocities reveal vulnerability of protected areas to climate change

Heikkinen

Leikola

Aalto

et al. 2020

Sci Rep

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climate change velocity is an increasingly used metric to assess the broad-scale climatic exposure and climate change induced risks to terrestrial and marine ecosystems. However, the utility of this metric in conservation planning can be enhanced by determining the velocities of multiple climatic drivers in real protected area (pA) networks on ecologically relevant scales. Here we investigate the velocities of three key bioclimatic variables across a nationwide reserve network, and the consequences of including fine-grained topoclimatic data in velocity assessments. Using 50-m resolution data describing present-day and future topoclimates, we assessed the velocities of growing degree days, the mean January temperature and climatic water balance in the Natura 2000 PA network in Finland. The highvelocity areas for the three climate variables differed drastically, indicating contrasting exposure risks in different PAs. The 50-m resolution climate data revealed more realistic estimates of climate velocities and more overlap between the present-day and future climate spaces in the PAs than the 1-km resolution data. even so, the current temperature conditions were projected to disappear from almost all the studied pAs by the end of this century. thus, in pA networks with only moderate topographic variation, far-reaching climate change induced ecological changes may be inevitable. Measurements of the magnitude and geographic variation of climatic changes across the network of protected areas (PAs) provide relevant information for conservation planning, enabling the targeting of management in the PAs most at risk in the face of climate change 1-6. One approach for assessing the climate-change-based risks is the climate change velocity, a metric which defines the speed and direction of climate shifts over a given area 4. Although the majority of the climate velocity studies have been conducted in terrestrial environments, there is now an increasing amount of climate velocity research also addressing marine environments 4,7,8. Technically, climate velocity is a generic metric which nevertheless provides ecologically relevant information for climate-wise conservation planning 2,4,9. Such information is particularly useful for identifying regions and PAs where climate conditions are changing most rapidly, exposing them to high rates of climate displacement 3. Climate velocity has typically been used to assess the climatic risks for the persistence of species and populations 9 , but in cases where rapid changes in the climate affect ecological engineer and keystone species, profound impacts can be carried over to community structure and ecosystem functions 2. Considering PAs as such, climate velocity assessments can be used to identify PAs which face substantial difficulties in retaining ecological conditions that promote present-day biodiversity. Moreover, climate velocity analyses are important in regions which would need new stepping-stone conservation areas to support species movements to complement the PA network, or con...

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Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

mentioning

confidence: 99%

Fine-grained climate velocities reveal vulnerability of protected areas to climate change

Heikkinen

Leikola

Aalto

et al. 2020

Sci Rep

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“…As a result, species may lose suitable climatic conditions within PAs and move into unprotected and human-dominated surroundings 5–7 making extinction rates potentially higher than projected 8 . Currently we lack fine-scale resolution on changing climatic conditions within PAs 9 , particularly at a global extent 6,10–12 .…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Predicted climate shifts within terrestrial protected areas worldwide

Hoffmann¹,

Irl²,

Beierkuhnlein³

2019

Nat Commun

Self Cite

126

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Protected areas (PA) are refugia of biodiversity. However, anthropogenic climate change induces a redistribution of life on Earth that affects the effectiveness of PAs. When species are forced to migrate from protected to unprotected areas to track suitable climate, they often face degraded habitats in human-dominated landscapes and a higher extinction threat. Here, we assess how climate conditions are expected to shift within the world’s terrestrial PAs (n = 137,432). PAs in the temperate and northern high-latitude biomes are predicted to obtain especially high area proportions of climate conditions that are novel within the PA network at the local, regional and global scale by the end of this century. These PAs are predominantly small, at low elevation, with low environmental heterogeneity, high human pressure, and low biotic uniqueness. Our results guide adaptation measures towards PAs that are strongly affected by climate change, and of low adaption capacity and high conservation value.

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“…Effective and efficient in-situ sampling designs can be created with this approach. (Batllori et al 2017, Gonzalez et al 2018 or Europe (Nila et al 2019, Barredo et al 2016, Araújo et al 2011. A spatially high-resolution assessment of local climate change impacts inside protected areas worldwide is required to guide local protected area management towards global conservation goals (Felton et al 2009).…”

Section: Optimising Field Surveys For Efficient Monitoring Of Speciesmentioning

confidence: 99%

Predicting the effectiveness of protected areas of Natura 2000 under climate change

Cited by 25 publications

References 36 publications

Fine-grained climate velocities reveal vulnerability of protected areas to climate change

Fine-grained climate velocities reveal vulnerability of protected areas to climate change

Predicted climate shifts within terrestrial protected areas worldwide

Advances in conservation biogeography: towards protected area effectiveness under anthropogenic threats

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