Predicting the ecosystem service values and constructing ecological security patterns in future changing land use patterns

Cai, Guo; Xiong, Jingfeng; Wen, Linsheng; Weng, Aifang; Lin, Yuying; Li, Baoyin

doi:10.1016/j.ecolind.2023.110787

Cited by 21 publications

(7 citation statements)

References 69 publications

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“…According to the Millennium Ecosystem Assessment, over 60% of ecosystem services are currently degraded. This degradation can lead to ecosystems losing the ability to support and protect themselves from external disturbances, which can ultimately pose a threat to both regional and global ecological security [42]. Hence, assessing the value of an ecosystem's services rendered at specific intervals over time can, to some extent, reflect the integrity of its structure and functioning, along with its resistance and ability to withstand risks.…”

Section: Framework For the Selection Of Indicesmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…For example, the economic value of unused land is difficult to account for, which may result in a portion of the ecological value of its regulation and support not being captured. In addition, ecosystem change is a dynamic process, and the area-weighted approach to calculating the total value of ecosystem services may cause functional de-differentiation and impede the identification of faster-changing ecosystem services [42], leading to less accurate construction of ecosystem resistance.…”

Section: Shortcomings and Prospectsmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Spatial and Temporal Changes in Ecological Resilience in the Shanxi–Shaanxi–Inner Mongolia Energy Zone with Multi-Scenario Simulation

Cai,

Song,

Xue

et al. 2024

Land

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The energy-driven expansion of artificial surfaces has resulted in severe ecological problems. Scientific evaluation of regional ecological resilience under different scenarios is crucial for promoting ecological restoration. This study chose the Shanxi–Shaanxi–Inner Mongolia Energy Zone (SEZ) and modeled an ecological resilience evaluation based on resistance, adaptability, and recovery. Land-use change and ecological resilience from 1980 to 2020 were then analyzed. Moreover, the SEZ land-use patterns and ecological resilience in 2030 were simulated under business as usual (BAU), energy and mineral development (EMD), and ecological conservation and restoration (ECR) scenarios. The results showed that (1) the SEZ was dominated by cultivated land, grassland, and unused land. (2) Ecological resilience showed a changing trend of decreasing and then increasing, with high ecological resilience areas mainly located in the Yellow River Basin, whereas low ecological resilience areas spread outward from the central urban areas. (3) The ecological resilience level was the lowest under the EMD scenario and the highest under the ECR scenario. This study not only expands the analysis framework of ecological resilience research but also provides scientific support for ecological conservation in ecologically fragile areas with intensive human activity worldwide.

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Section: Framework For the Selection Of Indicesmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Shortcomings and Prospectsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Spatial and Temporal Changes in Ecological Resilience in the Shanxi–Shaanxi–Inner Mongolia Energy Zone with Multi-Scenario Simulation

Cai,

Song,

Xue

et al. 2024

Land

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“…The analyses showed that each driver had different impacts on the transformation of the PLES area. When analyzing the factors affecting spatial evolution, previous researchers have mainly studied the changes in landscape patterns to reflect the drivers affecting the landscape [21] or used single-factor quantitative analyses, Pearson's correlation analyses [6], and regression analyses [58], which have certain limitations. Geo-Detector does not require linearity assumptions, is not affected by multivariate covariance [23], and can reflect bifactorial effects on landscape evolution.…”

Section: Driving Mechanism Of Ples Evolution In the Mulan River Basinmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Rapid urban development and expansion have caused ecological space to shrink and landscape fragmentation to increase [21][22][23]. Spatial conflicts between living space and ecological and productive space, especially water ecological space, are becoming increasingly prominent.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Exploring and Predicting Landscape Changes and Their Driving Forces within the Mulan River Basin in China from the Perspective of Production–Living–Ecological Space

Zhou,

Wen,

Wang

et al. 2024

Sustainability

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With rapid economic development and urban expansion, China faces a serious imbalance between production, living, and ecological land use, in which the erosion of water ecological space by urban expansion is especially notable. In order to alleviate or solve this imbalance, this study constructs the water ecological space in the Mulan River Basin based on national land spatial planning using remote sensing statistics and the 2000–2020 statistical yearbooks for the Mulan River Basin. A landscape index is applied to explore this landscape in terms of its production–living–ecological space (PLES) patterns and evolutionary characteristics. Factors affecting the drivers of PLES changes are analyzed through Geo-Detector, and predictions are made using the cellular automata Markov (CA-Markov) model. It was found that (1) PLES distribution patterns in the Mulan River Basin from 2000 to 2020 are dominated by non-watershed ecological spaces, with a significant expansion of living space. Its ecological space is shrinking, and there is significant spatial variation between its near-river and fringe areas. (2) Of the PLES conversions, the most dramatic conversions are those of production space and living space, with 81.14 km2 of production space being transferred into living space. Non-water ecological space and water ecological space are also mainly transferred into production space. (3) As shown by the results of the landscape index calculation, non-water ecological space in the Mulan River Basin is the dominant landscape, the values of the Shannon diversity index (SHDI) and Shannon homogeneity index (SHEI) are small, the overall level of landscape diversity is low, the aggregation index (AI) is high, and the degree of aggregation is obvious. (4) The progressive PLES changes in the Mulan River Basin are influenced by a combination of natural geographic and socioeconomic factors, with the mean population density and mean elevation being the most important factors affecting PLES changes among social and natural factors, respectively. (5) The Kappa coefficient of the CA-Markov model simulation is 0.8187, showing a good simulation accuracy, and it is predicted that the area of water ecological space in the Mulan River Basin will increase by 3.66 km2 by 2030, the area of production space and non-water ecological space will further decrease, and the area of construction land will increase by 260.67 km2. Overall, the aquatic ecological space in the Mulan River Basin has made progress in terms of landscape ecological protection, though it still faces serious erosion. Therefore, attaching importance to the restoration of the water ecological space in the Mulan River Basin, integrating multiple elements of mountains, water, forests, fields, and lakes, optimizing the spatial structure of its PLES dynamics, and formulating a reasonable spatial planning policy are effective means of guaranteeing its ecological and economic sustainable development. This study offers recommendations for and scientific defenses of the logical design of PLES spatial functions in the Mulan River Basin.

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“…While these studies offer a theoretical foundation for devising regional management strategies, they inadequately address the complexities of metropolitan areas, a spatial unit of greater intricacy [16]. Secondly, in terms of research content, some scholars have explored ecological risk assessment [17], scale effect assessment [18], ecological security patterns [19], and related topics rooted in regional ESV exploration, offering diverse measures and recommendations for ecological preservation and management.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

A Study of the Spatiotemporal Evolution Patterns and Coupling Coordination between Ecosystem Service Values and Habitat Quality in Diverse Scenarios: The Case of Chengdu Metropolitan Area, China

Huang,

Feng,

2024

Sustainability

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The global ecological decline resulting from urban development presents a significant challenge for numerous regions striving to reconcile conservation efforts with developmental needs. This study explores the relationship between ecosystem service value (ESV) and habitat quality (HQ) under various scenarios to elucidate prospective development trajectories. This study utilized the PLUS model to simulate land use patterns in the Chengdu metropolitan area across four distinct development scenarios. Furthermore, it employed the equivalent factor method and the Invest model to quantify ESV and HQ values, and investigated the coupling coordination between ESV and HQ for each city using a coupling coordination model (CCM). The findings are as follows: (1) Between 2000 and 2020, land use in the Chengdu metropolitan area primarily expanded through the development of construction land. (2) Concurrently, ESV demonstrated a fluctuating trend characterized by an initial decline succeeded by an upsurge, culminating under the Development–Ecological Balance Scenario. Likewise, HQ displayed a similar fluctuating pattern with an initial decline succeeded by an increase, reaching its zenith under the Ecological Dominance Scenario. (3) The coupling coordination between ESV and HQ exhibited variability across cities and scenarios. Ultimately, this study offers a distinctive perspective on evaluating the interplay between urban development and conservation, providing valuable insights for promoting sustainable development in other regions.

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Predicting the ecosystem service values and constructing ecological security patterns in future changing land use patterns

Cited by 21 publications

References 69 publications

Spatial and Temporal Changes in Ecological Resilience in the Shanxi–Shaanxi–Inner Mongolia Energy Zone with Multi-Scenario Simulation

Spatial and Temporal Changes in Ecological Resilience in the Shanxi–Shaanxi–Inner Mongolia Energy Zone with Multi-Scenario Simulation

Exploring and Predicting Landscape Changes and Their Driving Forces within the Mulan River Basin in China from the Perspective of Production–Living–Ecological Space

A Study of the Spatiotemporal Evolution Patterns and Coupling Coordination between Ecosystem Service Values and Habitat Quality in Diverse Scenarios: The Case of Chengdu Metropolitan Area, China

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