Predicting the economic costs and property value losses attributed to sudden oak death damage in California (2010–2020)

Kovacs, Kent; Václavík, Tomáš; Haight, Robert G.; Pang, Arwin; Cunniffe, Nik J.; Gilligan, Christopher A.; Meentemeyer, Ross K.

doi:10.1016/j.jenvman.2010.12.018

Cited by 57 publications

(45 citation statements)

References 33 publications

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“…and tanoak ( Lithocarpus densiflorus , recently attributed to a new genus as Notholithocarpus densiflorus ) [27], [31], [32]. This epidemic has caused damage to public and private property, economic impact on nursery, gardening and logging industries, and increased the cost of implementing regulatory activities [33], [34]. Many are also worried that large-scale tree mortality will have profound long-term environmental consequences, by changing the structure of plant and microbial communities, altering landscape ecological structure and function, and increasing forest-fire hazards [3], [27], [31], [35], [36], [37], [38].…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Landscape Epidemiology and Control of Pathogens with Cryptic and Long-Distance Dispersal: Sudden Oak Death in Northern Californian Forests

et al. 2012

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Exotic pathogens and pests threaten ecosystem service, biodiversity, and crop security globally. If an invasive agent can disperse asymptomatically over long distances, multiple spatial and temporal scales interplay, making identification of effective strategies to regulate, monitor, and control disease extremely difficult. The management of outbreaks is also challenged by limited data on the actual area infested and the dynamics of spatial spread, due to financial, technological, or social constraints. We examine principles of landscape epidemiology important in designing policy to prevent or slow invasion by such organisms, and use Phytophthora ramorum, the cause of sudden oak death, to illustrate how shortfalls in their understanding can render management applications inappropriate. This pathogen has invaded forests in coastal California, USA, and an isolated but fast-growing epidemic focus in northern California (Humboldt County) has the potential for extensive spread. The risk of spread is enhanced by the pathogen's generalist nature and survival. Additionally, the extent of cryptic infection is unknown due to limited surveying resources and access to private land. Here, we use an epidemiological model for transmission in heterogeneous landscapes and Bayesian Markov-chain-Monte-Carlo inference to estimate dispersal and life-cycle parameters of P. ramorum and forecast the distribution of infection and speed of the epidemic front in Humboldt County. We assess the viability of management options for containing the pathogen's northern spread and local impacts. Implementing a stand-alone host-free “barrier” had limited efficacy due to long-distance dispersal, but combining curative with preventive treatments ahead of the front reduced local damage and contained spread. While the large size of this focus makes effective control expensive, early synchronous treatment in newly-identified disease foci should be more cost-effective. We show how the successful management of forest ecosystems depends on estimating the spatial scales of invasion and treatment of pathogens and pests with cryptic long-distance dispersal.

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Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Landscape Epidemiology and Control of Pathogens with Cryptic and Long-Distance Dispersal: Sudden Oak Death in Northern Californian Forests

et al. 2012

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“…However, these estimated costs dwarf compared to the estimated damages from other invasive species found in the literature, such as the $10 billion over 10 years for the Emerald Ash Borer (Kovacs et al 2010), the $140 million over 10 years for Sudden Oak Death (Kovacs et al 2011a), and $2.5 billion over 20 years for red invasive Fire Ants in Hawaii (Gutrich, VanGelder, and Loope 2007). In contrast to these pests, N. corniger is a relatively slow spreading insect pest that mainly affects structural wood and in the short term is not expected to have a noticeable impact on ecosystem services, agricultural and forest crops, or home values.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 88%

“…A good example of these novel techniques is Aukema et al's (2011) use of existing data, spread models, and Bayesian statistics to estimate the current and future costs of three different feeding guilds of invasive forest insects. The impact of invasive forest pathogens, such as sudden oak death (Phytophthora ramorum) in California, has also been studied, and estimated losses are in the range of $140 million over 10 years (Kovacs et al 2011a). Other recent studies have also estimated the potential economic losses as a result of invasions by particular insect species.…”

Section: Ex-ante Estimates Of Economic Lossesmentioning

confidence: 99%

Potential economic costs of invasive structural pests: conehead termites,Nasutitermes corniger, in Florida

Álvarez

2016

Journal of Environmental Planning and Management

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Increased trade and human mobility result in sizable benefits to society, but are often accompanied by negative consequences, such as increased introduction of invasive pests to different landscapes and seascapes. In this paper, we couple an existing model of the biological spread of Nasutitermes corniger, an invasive neotropical termite recently introduced to Florida, with information on the costs to treat and repair affected structures, and use this coupled model to simulate the potential short-term costs of establishment of this structural pest. We construct empirical distributions of control and repair costs, using surveys of the pest control industry and homeowners, and use them to simulate treatment and damage costs through a re-sampling procedure. Our results suggest that the net present value of potential costs from an unchecked N. corniger invasion in Florida range between $6.9 and $9.9 million over the next 10 years.

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“…Also regarding disease, management efficacy decreases with time since P. ramorum arrival , highlighting the importance of treatments that may prevent establishment as well as rapid responses to new invasions in order to mitigate impacts ). These actions can provide time and space needed to implement further treatments that reduce the cost of disease (and potential interactions with other disturbances) to local communities (Kovacs et al 2011;Cobb et al this volume). Lastly, policy changes favoring retention of high value tanoak habitat, especially in locations at high risk from disturbance interactions could be effective at reducing the rate and extent of tanoak population decline as well as maintaining biodiversity and ecosystem function.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Range-Wide Threats to a Foundation Tree Species from Disturbance Interactions

Dillon¹,

Meentemeyer²,

Vogler³

et al. 2013

Madroño

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Predicting the economic costs and property value losses attributed to sudden oak death damage in California (2010–2020)

Cited by 57 publications

References 33 publications

Landscape Epidemiology and Control of Pathogens with Cryptic and Long-Distance Dispersal: Sudden Oak Death in Northern Californian Forests

Landscape Epidemiology and Control of Pathogens with Cryptic and Long-Distance Dispersal: Sudden Oak Death in Northern Californian Forests

Potential economic costs of invasive structural pests: conehead termites,Nasutitermes corniger, in Florida

Range-Wide Threats to a Foundation Tree Species from Disturbance Interactions

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