Predicting the distributions of Scleroderma guani (Hymenoptera: Bethylidae) under climate change in China

Abstract

The wasp Scleroderma guani is an important parasitic natural enemy of a variety of stem borers such as longicorn beetles. Studying and clarifying the suitable area of this wasp plays an important role in controlling stem borers. Based on information about the actual distribution of S. guani and on a set of environmental variables, MaxEnt niche model and ArcGIS were exploited to predict the potential distribution of this insect in China. This work simulated the geographical distribution of potential climatic suitability of S. guani in China at present and in different periods in the future. Combining the relative percent contribution score of environmental factors and the Jackknife test, the dominant environmental variables and their appropriate values restricting the potential geographical distribution of S. guani were screened. The results showed that the prediction of the MaxEnt model was highly in line with the actual distribution under current climate conditions, and the simulation accuracy was very high. The distribution of S. guani is mainly affected by bio18 (Precipitation of Warmest Quarter), bio11 (Mean Temperature of Coldest Quarter), bio13 (Precipitation of Wettest Month), and bio3 (Isothermality). The suitable habitat of S. guani in China is mainly distributed in the Northeast China Plain, North China Plain, middle-lower Yangtze Plain, and Sichuan Basin, with total suitable area of 547.05 × 10 4 km 2 , accounting for 56.85% of China's territory. Furthermore, under the RCP2.6, RCP4.5, and RCP8.5 climate change scenarios in the 2050s and 2090s, the areas of high, medium, and low suitability showed different degrees of change compared to nowadays, exhibiting expansion trend in the future. This work provides theoretical support for related research on pest control and ecological protection.

Climate‐driven mitochondrial selection in lacertid lizards

“…In agreement with earlier studies on two species of hares ( Lepus capensis , Slimen et al., 2017 ; Lepus europaeus , Stefanovic et al., 2019 ), we found that the precipitation factors were the drivers of positive selection of mitochondrial genes in lacertid lizards. Bio3, Bio4, and Bio13 are the common bioclimatic variables affecting the distribution of animals and ecologically suitable niches (Deng et al., 2022 ; Gao et al., 2021 ; Moradi‐Asl et al., 2020 ; Ye et al., 2022 ). According to our research, these bioclimatic variables were mostly important for gene selection, and increased the adaptability to different environment of lizards.…”

Potential impact of climatic factors on the distribution of Graphium sarpedon in China

“…One of the key contributions of our study is the use of the MaxEnt model to determine the distribution probability of G. sarpedon in China, which will effectively guide future field investigations, monitoring, and control efforts. While the MaxEnt model has the advantages of being easy to use, requiring small sample sizes, and providing high prediction accuracy, it also has some limitations; for example, response curves show only the effect of a single environmental factor, ignoring interactions between variables (Deng et al., 2022 ). In this study, we focused on the impact of climate on the distribution of G. sarpedon , and the environmental variables used in the MaxEnt model prediction, with the exception of altitude, were all climate variables.…”

Predicting the Distribution of Sclerodermus sichuanensis (Hymenoptera: Bethylidae) under Climate Change in China

“…The Maxent model used in this study has good performance among many prediction models [ 36 ], accurate prediction, simple operation, robust performance, and other advantages, but the use of the model is still not perfect [ 37 ]. The variables used in this study only involve temperature, rainfall and altitude, and other environmental impacts factors such as wind speed, airflow, air, and landform are not fully included in the model.…”