Predicting the current and future suitable habitat distributions of the anchovy (Engraulis ringens) using the Maxent model in the coastal areas off central‐northern Chile

Abstract

An assessment of climate change impacts on the habitat suitability of fish species is an important tool to improve the understanding and decision‐making needed to reduce potential climate change effects based on the observed relationships of biological responses and environmental conditions. In this study, we use historical (2010–2015) environmental sea surface temperature (SST), upwelling index (UI), chlorophyll‐a (Chl‐a) and biological (i.e., anchovy adults acoustic presence) data (i.e., Maxent) to determine anchovy habitat suitability in the coastal areas off central‐northern (25°S–32°S) Chile. Using geographic information systems (GIS), the model was forced by changes in regionalized SST, UI and Chl‐a as projected by IPCC models under the RPC (i.e., RCP2.6, RCP4.5, RCP6.0 and RCP8.5) emissions scenarios for the simulation period 2015–2050. The model simulates, for all RCP scenarios, negative responses in anchovy presence, reflecting the predicted changes in environmental variables, dominated by a future positive (warming) change in SST and UI, and a decrease in chlorophyll‐a (i.e., phytoplankton biomass). The model predicts negative changes in habitat suitability in coastal areas from north of Taltal (25°S) to south of Caldera (27°45′S) and in Coquimbo littoral zone (29°–30°12′S). The habitat suitability models and climate change predictions identified in this study may provide a scientific basis for the development of management measures for anchovy fisheries in the coastal areas of the South American coast and other parts of the world.

Impact of Climate Change on Wintering Ground of Japanese Anchovy (Engraulis japonicus) Using Marine Geospatial Statistics

“…The copepod abundance and composition will most likely lead to an increase in anchovy abundance under global warming (Stenevik and Sundby, 2007). In the Southern Hemisphere, the habitat distribution of Peruvian anchovy also showed climatedriven poleward shifts (except summer), with decreases in the potential relative in the north and central-south areas (Silva et al, 2016(Silva et al, , 2019. Similarly, anchovy and sardine exhibited a large-scale phenomenon of alternation in abundance, associated with climate-associated temperature changes.…”

“…The IPCC forecasts future climate change and discusses the impacts of climate change, future risks, and adaptation strategies. The R of the IPCC project global mean surface temperatures describe four scenarios (RCP 2.6, RCP4.5, RCP6.0, and RCP8.5) based on different greenhouse gas emissions (Nurdin et al, 2017;Silva et al, 2019). By the end of the 21st century (2081-2100), the IPCC-RCP scenarios projected that the global surface temperature would rise between 1.0 • C and 3.7 • C compared to the 1986-2005 baseline (IPCC, 2014b).…”

El Niño–Southern Oscillation impacts on jumbo squid habitat: Implication for fisheries management

“…For example, successful HSI models have been developed to predict the current and future suitable habitat distributions for the neon flying squid (Ommastrephes bartramii) in the north-west Pacific Ocean (Xu et al, 2016) and anchovy (Engraulis ringens) off central-northern Chile under the RCP (i.e. RCP2.6, RCP4.5, RCP6.0, and RCP8.5) emissions scenarios to explore the effects of global warming (Silva, Leiva & Lastra, 2019). In this study,…”

Predicting the Current and Future Suitable Habitat Distribution of Swimming Crab (Portunus trituberculatus) using the Species Distribution Model under Climate Change

“…The alterations in the distribution of marine species likely resulted in community restructuring and ecosystem biodiversity losses [3]. It is projected to cause significant impacts on fisheries and human communities [4]. Besides the shift in distribution, the marine species life histories and life cycles have also been significant influenced by climate change [5].…”