Predicting the Current and Future Distribution of the Invasive Weed Ageratina adenophora in the Chitwan–Annapurna Landscape, Nepal

Poudel, Anju; Shrestha, Bharat Babu; Joshi, Mohan Dev; Muniappan, R.; Adiga, Abhijin; Venkatramanan, Srinivasan; Jha, Pramod Kumar

doi:10.1659/mrd-journal-d-19-00069.1

Cited by 13 publications

(10 citation statements)

References 75 publications

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“…The spatiotemporal distribution pattern of A. adenophora is shaped by the interaction between biological characteristics and multiple environmental variables, such as temperature and precipitation. Previous studies have identified the minimum temperature of the coldest month (Bio6) as a significant variable determining the geographical distribution of A. adenophora in Nepal (Poudel et al, 2020). Consistently, our results showed that the geographic distribution of A. adenophora in China is shaped by the combination of precipitation and temperature variables.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Further, the geographical distribution of A. adenophora may expand to Southeast China, which has suitable climatic conditions for colonization. To date, regional studies in Nepal (Poudel et al, 2020), India (Chaudhary et al, 2021), and South Africa (Tererai & Wood, 2014) have predicted that the geographic distribution of A. adenophora will expand under climate change. Therefore, climate warming appears to be conducive to the survival of A. adenophora , augmenting its global invasion risk.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Previous studies have identified the minimum temperature of the coldest month (Bio6) as a significant variable determining the geographical distribution of A. adenophora in Nepal (Poudel et al, 2020).…”

Section: Expansion Of the Geographical Distribution Of A Adenophora I...mentioning

confidence: 99%

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Evidence of the niche expansion of crofton weed following invasion in China

Xian

Hong-yan

Wang

et al. 2023

Ecology and Evolution

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Niche dynamics of invasive alien plants (IAPs) play pivotal roles in biological invasion.Ageratina adenophora-one of the most aggressive IAPs in China and some parts of the world-poses severe ecological and socioeconomic threats. However, the spatiotemporal niche dynamics of A. adenophora in China remain unknown, which we aimed to elucidate in the present study. China, Mexico; using a unifying framework, we reconstructed the climate niche dynamics of A. adenophora and applied the optimal MaxEnt model to predict its potential geographical distribution in China. Furthermore, we compared the heterogeneity of A. adenophora niche between Mexico (native) and China (invasive). We observed a low niche overlap between Mexico (native) and China (invasive). Specifically, the niche of A. adenophora in China has distinctly expanded compared to that in Mexico, enhancing the invasion risk of this IAP in the former country. In fact, the climatic niche of A. adenophora in Mexico is a subset of that in China. The potential geographical distribution of A. adenophora is concentrated in the tropical and subtropical zones of Southwest China, and its geographical distribution pattern in China is shaped by the combination of precipitation and temperature variables. The niche dynamics of A. adenophora follow the hypothesis of niche shift and conservatism. The present work provides a unifying framework for studies on the niche dynamics of other IAPs worldwide.

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Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Evidence of the niche expansion of crofton weed following invasion in China

Xian

Hong-yan

Wang

et al. 2023

Ecology and Evolution

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“…Previous studies have indicated that the winter temperature and minimum temperature of the coldest month have a significant impact on the distribution of A. adenophora in China and Nepal (Poudel et al, 2020;Fang et al, 2021). In general, A. adenophora prefers to grow in warm temperature conditions, such as between 10-25 • C (Sun et al, 2004;Tererai and Wood, 2014).…”

Section: Significant Environmental Variablesmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…The total suitable habitat areas of A. adenophora will increase under RCP 8.5 in the 2070s compared with that under the current climate. Some studies have indicated that the PGD of A. adenophora will expand by 45.3% and 2% under RCP 8.5 in India and Nepal, respectively (Poudel et al, 2020;Chaudhary et al, 2021). Our findings were consistent with this pattern.…”

Section: The Changes In the Distribution Pattern Of A Adenophora Unde...mentioning

confidence: 99%

Predicting the potential geographical distribution of Ageratina adenophora in China using equilibrium occurrence data and ensemble model

et al. 2022

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Invasive alien plants (IAPs) pose a significant threat to the ecological environment and agricultural production in China. Ageratina adenophora is one of the most aggressive IAPs in China and poses serious ecological and socioeconomic threats. Estimating the distribution pattern of A. adenophora in China can provide baseline data for preventing damage by this weed. In the present study, based on the equilibrium occurrence data of A. adenophora in China and related environmental variables, we used an ensemble model to predict the distribution pattern of A. adenophora in China under climate change. Our findings indicated that true skill statistic (TSS), area under the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve (AUC), and Cohen’s Kappa (KAPPA) values for the ensemble model were 0.925, 0.993, and 0.936, respectively. The prediction results of the ensemble model were more accurate than those of the single models. Temperature variables had a significant impact on the potential geographical distribution (PGD) of A. adenophora in China. The total, high, and moderate suitability habitat areas of A. adenophora in China were 153.82 × 104, 92.13 × 104, and 21.04 × 104 km2, respectively, accounting for 16.02, 9.60, and 2.19% of the Chinese mainland area, respectively. The PGD of A. adenophora in China under the current climate is mainly located in southwestern and southeastern China, which are located in the tropical and subtropical zone. The high-suitability habitat areas of A. adenophora decreased under the future climate scenarios, mainly by changing to moderately suitable habitats in Southwest China. The geographical distribution of A. adenophora in southwestern China is currently saturated and will spread to southeastern China under climate change in the future. More attention should be paid to early warning and monitoring of A. adenophora in southeastern China to prevent its further spread.

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