Predicting risk for trauma patients using static and dynamic information from the MIMIC III database

Abstract

Risk quantification algorithms in the ICU can provide (1) an early alert to the clinician that a patient is at extreme risk and (2) help manage limited resources efficiently or remotely. With electronic health records, large data sets allow the training of predictive models to quantify patient risk. A gradient boosting classifier was trained to predict high-risk and low-risk trauma patients, where patients were labeled high-risk if they expired within the next 10 hours or within the last 10% of their ICU stay duration. The MIMIC-III database was filtered to extract 5,400 trauma patient records (526 non-survivors) each of which contained 5 static variables (age, gender, etc.) and 28 dynamic variables (e.g., vital signs and metabolic panel). Training data was also extracted from the dynamic variables using a 3-hour moving time window whereby each window was treated as a unique patient-time fragment. We extracted the mean, standard deviation, and skew from each of these 3-hour fragments and included them as inputs for training. Additionally, a survival metric upon admission was calculated for each patient using a previously developed National Trauma Data Bank (NTDB)-trained gradient booster model. The final model was able to distinguish between high-risk and low-risk patients to an AUROC of 92.9%, defined as the area under the receiver operator characteristic curve. Importantly, the dynamic survival probability plots for patients who die appear considerably different from those who survive, an example of reducing the high dimensionality of the patient record to a single trauma trajectory.