Predicting Retention, Understanding Attrition: A Prospective Study of Foundation Year Students

Abstract

The aim of this study was to evaluate two psychometric tools for identifying students at risk of failing to progress from a Foundation Year (FY) programme, a preparatory programme for those without the qualifications to enrol directly on to an undergraduate degree. Students from four FY programmes across two UK universities were invited to complete the survey at the start of the academic year (Time-1) and again towards the end of the FY (Time-2). The survey comprised the Academic Behaviour Confidence and Performance Expectation Ladder scales designed to measure students' expectations of their academic performance and achievement. From a total of 198 participants (85% of enrolments), 90 completed measures at both points. End of year examining board outcomes were matched to the survey data. Time 1 data showed that two subscales of the confidence measure, Grades and Attendance, were indicative of subsequent progression issues. At Time 2, diminishing expectations were evident amongst those who subsequently failed to progress indicating a process of disengagement. Therefore these measures could be used to identify students who might benefit from targeted interventions to help uncertain new entrants access the benefits that Higher Education can provide.

A viable equity mechanism for all? Exploring the diversity of entry requirements and supports in Australian enabling education

“…This has significant implications for programs developing all students to be ready for further (undergraduate) study. Integral to these discussions are questions relating both to how universities can open access to students in ways that recognise and flex to accommodate prior educational disadvantage, but also support them to avoid unfulfilled expectations and 'unrealistic optimism' (Sanders et al, 2016) that consequently lead to attrition.…”

Detecting uncertainty, predicting outcome for first year students

“…Nicholson et al, 2013). These two measures, ABC and PEL, were found to be good predictors of successful completion of studies with foundation year students in a previous study (Sanders et al, 2016). (Foundation year programmes are one means by which students lacking the necessary qualifications or skills to enter HE can acquire those skills and improve their preparedness for degree-level study.)…”

“…The aim of the study was to evaluate the use of these two psychometric measures at the start of the academic year for identifying students at risk of non-completion. Previously, three of the four subscales of the ABC (Studying, Grades and Attendance) have been shown to be predictive for all three years of an undergraduate psychology programme (Nicholson et al, 2013) and the Attendance subscale has been shown to predictive with foundation year students (Sanders et al, 2016). If these concise measures can be shown to be effective detectors of uncertainty and doubting at the start of the academic year, they could be used as routine screening for all new students enabling institutions to target interventions to improve retention.…”

Student feedback to improved retention: using a mixed-methods approach to extend specific feedback to a generalisable concept

“…Various models have been built which both explain the observed retention for groups of students and which provide a basis for targeting additional support. New data is sometimes collected for use in predictive models but more usually existing registration data and data from a virtual learning environment data is used to identify students "at risk" (Sanders et al 2016;Rose-Adams 2013;Fowler&Norrie 2009;Essa&Ahad 2012 andSimpson et al 2006).…”