Predicting resprouting of Platanus × hispanica following branch pruning by means of machine learning

Abstract

IntroductionResprouting is a crucial survival strategy following the loss of branches, being it by natural events or artificially by pruning. The resprouting prediction on a physiological basis is a highly complex approach. However, trained gardeners try to predict a tree’s resprouting after pruning purely based on their empirical knowledge. In this study, we explore how far such predictions can also be made by machine learning.MethodsTable-topped annually pruned Platanus × hispanica trees at a nursery were LiDAR-scanned for two consecutive years. Topological structures for these trees were abstracted by cylinder fitting. Then, new shoots and trimmed branches were labelled on corresponding cylinders. Binary and multiclass classification models were tested for predicting the location and number of new sprouts.ResultsThe accuracy for predicting whether having or not new shoots on each cylinder reaches 90.8% with the LGBMClassifier, the balanced accuracy is 80.3%. The accuracy for predicting the exact numbers of new shoots with the GaussianNB model is 82.1%, but its balanced accuracy is reduced to 42.9%.DiscussionThe results were validated with a separate dataset, proving the feasibility of resprouting prediction after pruning using this approach. Different tree species, tree forms, and other variables should be addressed in further research.