Predicting Responses of Geo-ecological Carbonate Reef Systems to Climate Change: A Conceptual Model and Review

Cuttler, Michael; Moon, Katie; Morgan, Kyle M.; Ross, Claire L.; Castro‐Sanguino, Carolina; Kennedy, Emma; Harris, Daniel L.; Barnes, Peter W.; Bauman, Andrew G.; Beetham, Edward; Bonesso, Joshua Louis; Bozec, Yves‐Marie; Cornwall, Christopher E.; Dee, Shannon; DeCarlo, Thomas M.; D'Olivio, Juan; Doropoulos, Christopher; Evans, Richard D.; Eyre, Bradley D.; Gatenby, Peter; González‐Rivero, Manuel; Hamylton, Sarah; Hansen, Jeff E.; Lowe, Ryan J.; Mallela, Jennie; O’Leary, Michael J.; Roff, George; Saunders, Benjamin J.; Zweifler, Adi

doi:10.1201/9781003138846-4

Cited by 18 publications

(39 citation statements)

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“…The metrics presented here assess concern for maintaining CaCO 3 balance based on census and chemistry‐based approaches; however, the question remains whether thresholds other than zero may be more relevant to the sustained geo‐ecological function of coral reefs? The mean net carbonate budgets in this study were low (mean ± 95% = 2.1 ± 0.6 kg CaCO 3 m −2 yr −1 ) supporting the notion that reefs may be unable to keep up with accelerating sea level rise under higher CO 2 emissions scenarios (Perry et al 2018 a ), especially when taking into account the additional role of chemical CaCO 3 dissolution and physical transport processes that were omitted from the census‐based methods (Browne et al 2021). In addition, these assessments of concern for maintaining reef's CaCO 3 balances are based on the present assessment and do not take into account the future stressors on net carbonate budgets caused by increases in coral bleaching events, coral disease outbreaks, and CaCO 3 dissolution rates (Van Hooidonk et al 2016; Randall and van Woesik 2017; Eyre et al 2018).…”

Section: Discussionsupporting

confidence: 72%

“…Net carbonate budgets (kg CaCO 3 m −2 yr −1 ) were thus calculated as carbonate production minus endolithic bioerosion and parrotfish bioerosion × 50% reincorporation rate for each site following Perry et al (2018 a ). Although mechanical bioerosion by parrotfish is represented as a net loss of CaCO 3 following ReefBudget methods (Perry et al 2018 b ), there is limited data quantifying the proportion of mechanically bioeroded CaCO 3 that is ultimately exported from the reef environment (Browne et al 2021). Here, we have assumed that 50% of mechanical parrotfish bioerosion was reincorporated back into the reef matrix with the remaining 50% exported from the reef following Hubbard et al (1990) and Perry et al (2018 a ).…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Quantifying changes in coral reef geo‐ecological functions can be accomplished through measuring the net accumulation of calcium carbonate (CaCO 3 ), but direct measurements of changes in coral reef bathymetry or accretion rates from sediment cores typically require multiple years to detect changes (Aronson and Precht 2001; Yates et al 2017; Lange et al 2020 a ). Census‐based net carbonate budgets and chemistry‐based net coral reef calcification have been widely used to provide insights into the maintenance of coral reef structures under environmental change (e.g., see discussion in Courtney and Andersson 2019; Lange et al 2020 a ; Browne et al 2021 and references therein). Census‐based methods sum annual CaCO 3 production and erosion rates of different functional groups to estimate net carbonate budgets from ecological surveys, but are limited by survey biases (i.e., what the observer can see) and typically rely on literature‐derived annualized rates (Chave et al 1972; Perry et al 2018 b ; Lange et al 2020 a ).…”

Section: Figmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Rapid assessments of Pacific Ocean net coral reef carbonate budgets and net calcification following the 2014–2017 global coral bleaching event

Courtney

Barkley

Chan

et al. 2022

Limnology & Oceanography

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The 2014–2017 global coral bleaching event caused widespread coral mortality; however, its impact on the capacity for coral reefs to maintain calcium carbonate structures has not been determined. Here, we quantified remotely sensed maximum heat stress during the 2014–2017 bleaching event, census‐based net carbonate budgets from benthic imagery and fish survey data, and net reef calcification from salinity normalized seawater total alkalinity anomalies collected from 2017–2019 for 56 Pacific coral reef sites (Mariana Islands, Northwestern Hawaiian Islands, Pacific Remote Island Areas, and American Samoa). We incorporated the census‐based and chemistry‐based metrics to determine a calcification vulnerability index for each site to maintain calcium carbonate balance to provide accessible information to managers and policy makers. Most coral reef sites likely experienced ecologically severe (79%, n = 44) or significant (9%, n = 7) heat stress during the 2014–2017 coral bleaching event. Census‐based net carbonate budgets (mean ± 95% = 2.1 ± 0.6 kg CaCO3 m−2 yr−1) were positive for 77% of sites (n = 43), neutral for 16% of sites (n = 9), and negative for 7% of sites (n = 4). Chemistry‐based relative net reef calcification (mean ± 95% = 22 ± 10 μmol kg−1) was positive for 84% of sites (n = 47), neutral for 11% of sites (n = 6), and negative for 5% of sites (n = 3). The calcification vulnerability index suggested the Pacific Ocean reef sites surveyed were of minimal (68%, n = 38) to moderate (32%, n = 18) concern for maintaining calcium carbonate balance following the bleaching event. This suggests that many reefs maintained positive calcium carbonate balance, but that a large number of reefs may be approaching a potential threshold for maintaining their calcium carbonate balance under the climate crisis.

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Section: Discussionsupporting

confidence: 72%

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Figmentioning

confidence: 99%

See 1 more Smart Citation

Rapid assessments of Pacific Ocean net coral reef carbonate budgets and net calcification following the 2014–2017 global coral bleaching event

Courtney

Barkley

Chan

et al. 2022

Limnology & Oceanography

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“…Ours is one of the few studies to date that has attempted to quantify the relative contribution of biological, chemical, and physical erosion in reef environments, and there is critical need to combine and cross-validate methods for quantifying reef-framework construction and erosion to develop more comprehensive assessments in the future (Courtney et al, 2016;Lange et al, 2020). We reiterate that census-based carbonate budgets still provide valuable estimates of changes in the relative importance of biologically driven constructive and destructive processes through time, but caution the interpretation of these results to be representative of net reef accretion over longer timescales (Browne et al, 2021).…”

Section: Quantifying Changes In Reef Accretionmentioning

confidence: 95%

“…Although our results suggest that direct comparisons across disparate timescales should be treated with some caution (Browne et al, 2021), our study also offers a unique opportunity to quantify the contribution of erosive processes not typically captured by the ReefBudget methodology to net reef accretion. We hypothesize that the ~1 mm year −1 (1.15 kg CaCO 3 m −2 year −1 ) offset between recent accretion measured using reef cores (1950 C.E.…”

Section: Quantifying Changes In Reef Accretionmentioning

confidence: 98%

The past, present, and future of coral reef growth in the Florida Keys

Toth

Courtney

Colella

et al. 2022

Global Change Biology

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Coral-reef degradation is driving global-scale reductions in reef-building capacity and the ecological, geological, and socioeconomic functions it supports. The persistence of those essential functions will depend on whether coral-reef management is able to rebalance the competing processes of reef accretion and erosion. Here, we reconstructed census-based carbonate budgets of 46 reefs throughout the Florida Keys from 1996 to 2019. We evaluated the environmental and ecological drivers of changing budget states and compared historical trends in reef-accretion potential to millennial-scale baselines of accretion from reef cores and future projections with coral restoration. We found that historically, most reefs had positive carbonate budgets, and many had reef-accretion potential comparable to the ~3 mm year −1 average accretion rate during the peak of regional reef building ~7000 years ago; however, declines in reef-building Acropora palmata and Orbicella spp. corals following a series of thermal stress events and coral disease outbreaks resulted in a shift from positive to negative budgets for most reefs in the region. By 2019, only ~15% of reefs had positive net carbonate production. Most of those reefs were in inshore, Lower Keys patch-reef habitats with low water clarity, supporting the hypothesis that environments with naturally low irradiance may provide a refugia from thermal stress. We caution that our estimated carbonate budgets are likely overly optimistic; comparison of reef-accretion potential to measured accretion from reef cores suggests that, by not accounting for the role of nonbiological physical and chemical erosion, censusbased carbonate budgets may underestimate total erosion by ~1 mm year −1 (−1.15 kg CaCO 3 m −2 year −1 ). Although the present state of Florida's reefs is dire, we demonstrate that the restoration of reef-building corals has the potential to help mitigate declines in reef accretion in some locations, which could allow some key ecosystem functions to be maintained until the threat of global climate change is addressed.

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Reef island evolution in a turbid‐water coral reef province of the Indo‐Pacific

Bonesso

Cuttler

Mather

et al. 2023

The Depositional Record

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Coral reef islands are vulnerable landforms to environmental change. Constructed of largely unconsolidated reef‐derived sediments, they are highly sensitive to variations in metocean boundary conditions, raising global concern about their future resilience and stability in the face of increased natural hazards, sea‐level rise and anthropogenic climate change. This study examines the evolution of an inshore turbid reef island from the southern Pilbara region of Western Australia (Indo‐Pacific) using detailed analyses of island chronostratigraphy (composition, texture) and geochronology (21 in‐situ radiometric dates) from Eva Island. Downcore, composition of island‐grade (reef‐derived) sediments were homogenous, dominated by molluscan (37%–42%) and coral (32%–37%) constituents. The 14C radiometric dating of island sediments, beachrock and coral microatolls identified five stages of island formation across changing sea‐level regimes over the mid to late Holocene: (1) limestone platform accretion at ca 6,000 cal yr BP, coinciding with reef decline or ‘give‐up’ on neighbouring Exmouth Gulf reefs; (2) sand cay (i.e. core) initiation and vertical aggregation at ca 5,000 cal yr BP during the point of sea‐level regression to current levels; (3) major accretion and lateral progradation of the island between 3,500 cal yr BP and 2,500 cal yr BP including the modification of island shorelines through alongshore reworking of sediment; (4) lateral accretion and minor expansion to the north and formation of beachrock pavement between 2,500 and 650 cal yr BP; and (5) planform adjustment (erosion of the north‐west island) and backstepping under stabilised sea levels over the past 650 years. While this model is comparative to studies on island formation following incremental sea‐level fall following the mid‐Holocene highstand, it demonstrates active landform readjustment under stabilised sea levels over the past 2,000 years, probably the influence of local‐scale metocean boundary conditions within climate windows across the mid to late Holocene period (i.e. independent of sea‐level fluctuations). Importantly, while sediment production rates are predicted to be lower in turbid‐water reef systems than clear water, Eva Island shows no change in carbonate producers (i.e. proportion of mollusc and coral) over the course of island building, indicating the carbonate factory has not experienced significant adjustments in reef ecology, but has remained stable despite low water quality.

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Predicting Responses of Geo-ecological Carbonate Reef Systems to Climate Change: A Conceptual Model and Review

Cited by 18 publications

References 0 publications

Rapid assessments of Pacific Ocean net coral reef carbonate budgets and net calcification following the 2014–2017 global coral bleaching event

Rapid assessments of Pacific Ocean net coral reef carbonate budgets and net calcification following the 2014–2017 global coral bleaching event

The past, present, and future of coral reef growth in the Florida Keys

Reef island evolution in a turbid‐water coral reef province of the Indo‐Pacific

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