Predicting Potential Threats and Megarisks in Information Technology Development

Abstract

This paper considers the methodological aspects of forecasting the emergence of threats and risks relating to the development of information technologies on the basis of a multicriterion analysis of human interaction with the information environment, as well as problems of information security of a person and society, taking into account the influence of factors such as the globalization of the world economy and the formation of a new technological structure. Informatization, convergence of computer, telecommunication technologies, and multimedia provide a fundamentally new level of civilizational development, increasingly influencing the life of a person and society. From the point of view of a systemic approach, the application of scientific metrics and multidimensional analysis methods, the causal relationships of the emergence of the most dangerous and significant threats and risks of the implementation of information technologies for the economy and society as a whole are investigated. Some conclusions, priorities, and the most urgent tasks of developing an interdisciplinary problem of forecasting the assessment and minimizing risks of information technology development are formulated.