Predicting Potential Habitat of a Plant Species with Small Populations under Climate Change: Ostryarehderiana

Feng, Lei; Sun, Jiejie; El‐Kassaby, Yousry A.; Yang, X.; Tian, Xiangni; Wang, Tongli

doi:10.3390/f13010129

Cited by 13 publications

(8 citation statements)

References 59 publications

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“…Future climate change is mainly reflected in the escalating temperature increase caused by greenhouse gases, which will promote species migration to the boreal forests [77]. At large spatial and temporal scales, climate was the primary determining factor in regulating species distribution [16,75]. This study revealed that the most important bioclimatic variables affecting the presence of H. tetratepala were precipitation during the warmest quarter (Bio_18), followed by temperature seasonality (Bio_4).…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 93%

“…The results showed a highly effective and accurate method for predicting the potential suitable areas of H. tetratepala, despite the fact that the use of AUC value to estimate the predictive accuracy of the MaxEnt model is controversial [72][73][74]. At large spatial and temporal scales, climate was the primary determining factor in regulating species distribution [16,75]. This study revealed that the most important bioclimatic variables affecting the presence of H. tetratepala were precipitation during the warmest quarter (Bio_18), followed by temperature seasonality (Bio_4).…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 98%

“…Rapid climate change and human-driven land-use change have become the greatest drivers threatening biodiversity [8][9][10]. Climate change affects the current and future distribution of many species, influencing ecosystems and biotas worldwide [11][12][13][14][15][16]. Global warming has caused significant changes in spatial and temporal environmental patterns, affecting efforts to conserve biodiversity [17][18][19][20][21].…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Predicting Climate Change Impacts on the Rare and Endangered Horsfieldia tetratepala in China

Cai

Zhang

Zha

et al. 2022

Forests

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Global climate change has become a major threat to biodiversity, posing severe challenges to species conservation. This is particularly true for species such as Horsfieldia tetratepala that have extremely small populations in the wild. Little is known about the species distribution of H. tetratepala in the current climate, as well as how that will change with potential future climates. The key environmental factors that influence its expansion, especially its habitat sustainability and its potential to adapt to climate change, are also unknown, though such information is vital for the protection of this endangered species. Based on six climate factors and 25 species distribution points, this study used the maximum entropy model (MaxEnt) to simulate the potential distribution for H. tetratepala in three periods (current, 2050s, and 2070s), and to investigate the changes in distribution patterns and the main environmental factors affecting species distribution. The modeling results show that the most important bioclimatic variables affecting H. tetratepala were precipitation of the warmest quarter (Bio_18) and temperature seasonality (Bio_4). The suitable areas for H. tetratepala will gradually be lost in Yunnan but will be generally offset in the northeastward direction, expanding in Hainan, Guangzhou, and Taiwan provinces under the future climate conditions. Therefore, we recommend protecting the habitats of H. tetratepala in Yunnan and strengthening the in-depth species investigation and monitoring in areas (Hainan, Guangzhou, and Taiwan) where no related reports of H. tetratepala have been reported. The results improve our understanding of this species’ response under the changing climate and benefit strategies for its conservation.

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Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 93%

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 98%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Predicting Climate Change Impacts on the Rare and Endangered Horsfieldia tetratepala in China

Cai

Zhang

Zha

et al. 2022

Forests

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“…These maps were imported into QGIS 2.18.25 software to map the current and future geographic distribution of suitable habitats of B. aegyptiaca based on the logistic probability of occurrence (P). (i) low suitable (0 > P ≤ 0.3), (ii) medium suitable (0.3 > P ≤ 0.5), and (iii) high suitable areas (0.5 > P ≤ 1) (Feng et al, 2022). The area of each habitat type was calculated, and the trend was estimated (proportion of loss, stable, or gained area).…”

Section: Data Processing and Model Development Processmentioning

confidence: 99%

Climate change effects on desert date Balanites aegyptiaca (L.) Delile in Benin: Implications for conservation and domestication

Hounsou-Dindin

Idohou

Hounsode

et al. 2023

Natural Resources Forum

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Effectiveness of Balanites aegyptiaca conservation and sustainable exploitation requires a better knowledge of the intrinsic environmental factors linked with its current and future geographic distribution. This study aimed to map suitable areas for the conservation and domestication of B. aegyptiaca under present‐day and future climate conditions in Benin. A total of 424 occurrence records of B. aegyptiaca were combined with the environmental variables of two climatic scenarios (optimistic RCP 4.5 and pessimistic RCP 8.5) following the biodiversity modeling approach (biomod2). Findings were that under current and future climate conditions (RCP 4.5 and 8.5), almost one‐third of the country's area (protected and non‐protected areas), mainly located in the semiarid zone, presents a high probability of suitable areas for the conservation and domestication of B. aegyptiaca by 2055 time horizon. Exceptionally, a fine portion of medium suitable area for its distribution was found in the coastal area. Whatever the future climatic scenarios, a probable potential extension of the suitable areas (2.52% for RCP 4.5 and 0.43% for RCP 8.5) will be noted, thus emphasizing a positive impact of climate changes on the species. These findings are timely and could be used for setting appropriate management policies targeting the species in Benin.

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“…Regarding the rare endemic species, SDM has been improved by a variety of algorithms and methodologies for model construction, in addition to the incorporation of environmental factors with different scales of influence on species distributions ( e.g . Pearson et al, 2007 ; Williams et al, 2009 ; Patsiou et al, 2014 ; McCune, 2016 ; Mi et al, 2017 ; Feng et al, 2022 ).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Assisted migration and the rare endemic plant species: the case of two endangered Mexican spruces

Mendoza-Maya

Gómez‐Pineda

Sáenz‐Romero

et al. 2022

PeerJ

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Background In the projected climate change scenarios, assisted migration might play an important role in the ex situ conservation of the threatened plant species, by translocate them to similar suitable habitats outside their native distributions. However, it is unclear if such habitats will be available for the Rare Endemic Plant Species (REPS), because of their very restricted habitats. The aims of this study were to perform a population size assessment for the REPS Picea martinezii Patterson and Picea mexicana Martínez, and to evaluate the potential species distributions and their possibilities for assisted migration inside México and worldwide. Methods We performed demographic censuses, field surveys in search for new stands, and developed distribution models for Last Glacial Maximum (22,000 years ago), Middle Holocene (6,000 years ago), current (1961–1990) and future (2050 and 2070) periods, for the whole Mexican territory (considering climatic, soil, geologic and topographic variables) and for all global land areas (based only on climate). Results Our censuses showed populations of 89,266 and 39,059 individuals for P. martinezii and P. mexicana, respectively, including known populations and new stands. Projections for México indicated somewhat larger suitable areas in the past, now restricted to the known populations and new stands, where they will disappear by 2050 in a pessimistic climatic scenario, and scarce marginal areas (p = 0.5–0.79) remaining only for P. martinezii by 2070. Worldwide projections (based only on climate variables) revealed few marginal areas in 2050 only in México for P. martinezii, and several large areas (p ≥ 0.5) for P. mexicana around the world (all outside México), especially on the Himalayas in India and the Chungyang mountains in Taiwan with highly suitable (p ≥ 0.8) climate habitats in current and future (2050) conditions. However, those suitable areas are currently inhabited by other endemic spruces: Picea smithiana (Wall.) Boiss and Picea morrisonicola Hayata, respectively. Conclusions Assisted migration would only be an option for P. martinezii on scarce marginal sites in México, and the possibilities for P. mexicana would be continental and transcontinental translocations. This rises two possible issues for future ex situ conservation programs: the first is related to whether or not consider assisted migration to marginal sites which do not cover the main habitat requirements for the species; the second is related to which species (the local or the foreign) should be prioritized for conservation when suitable habitat is found elsewhere but is inhabited by other endemic species. This highlights the necessity to discuss new policies, guidelines and mechanisms of international cooperation to deal with the expected high species extinction rates, linked to projected climate change.

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Predicting Potential Habitat of a Plant Species with Small Populations under Climate Change: Ostryarehderiana

Cited by 13 publications

References 59 publications

Predicting Climate Change Impacts on the Rare and Endangered Horsfieldia tetratepala in China

Predicting Climate Change Impacts on the Rare and Endangered Horsfieldia tetratepala in China

Climate change effects on desert date Balanites aegyptiaca (L.) Delile in Benin: Implications for conservation and domestication

Assisted migration and the rare endemic plant species: the case of two endangered Mexican spruces

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