Predicting population responses to environmental change: the importance of considering informed dispersal strategies in spatially structured population models

Abstract

Aim Because of its complexity, dispersal has often been simplified when implemented in models aiming at understanding and predicting population dynamics and persistence in a context of environmental change. In particular, informed dispersal, that is the use of personal and social information to decide whether to leave a natal or current breeding site and where to settle, has seldom been considered. Informed dispersal could nevertheless be critical for predicting population dynamics, structure and persistence, as it could help populations track environmental change. Here, we develop a simulation model to examine the consequences of four dispersal strategies (informed, semiinformed, fixed random dispersal and philopatry) on the dynamics, structure and persistence of a spatially structured population under different environmental scenarios.Methods We built and parameterized a metapopulation dynamic model using a long-lived colonial seabird species as an example, the black-legged kittiwake Rissa tridactyla, breeding on a set of distinct patches. Various scenarios of environmental variability and multiple factors potentially driving natal and breeding dispersal decisions (local habitat quality, individual and conspecific breeding success, personal and social information use) were considered to explore their respective effects.Results Environmental change and dispersal strategies strongly influenced metapopulation dynamics and structure. In spatially variable environments, informed and semi-informed dispersal maintained populations in the long term, whereas philopatry and random dispersal led to extinction. Contrasted dynamics also arose: philopatry led to ecological traps, random and semiinformed dispersal led to source-sink dynamics and informed dispersal drove extinction-recolonization dynamics.Main conclusions This study demonstrates the importance of including informed dispersal in models aiming at predicting the dynamics of spatially structured populations. It also serves to highlight the urgent need to collect more empirical data on dispersal processes to properly parameterize such models.

Information thresholds, habitat loss and population persistence in breeding birds

“…My results demonstrate that population persistence time, population density, and per capita reproductive success all increased in proportion to the number of breeding sites (one in the case of WSLS) that are assessed. These results are qualitatively consistent with the use of informed dispersal strategies at the patch/colony scale (Schmidt , Ponchon et al ). At either scale, information equates to a reduction in the proportional use of poorer habitat.…”

Information use shapes the dynamics of range expansions into environmental gradients

“…This indicates that it is not the direct fitness effect of the environmental gradient itself but rather altered dispersal behaviour based on the information content of the gradient that drives range expansion dynamics into our experimental environmental gradients. Our finding underlines the importance of information use and behavioural plasticity for dispersal and spatial dynamics under changing environmental conditions (Clobert et al ., ; O'Connor et al ., ; Ponchon et al ., ), as well as for ecological and evolutionary dynamics in general (Dall et al ., ; Schmidt et al ., ).…”

Prospecting precedes dispersal and increases survival chances in cooperatively breeding cichlids

“…Owing to a lack of knowledge about and familiarity with the new environment, dispersal can be a costly enterprise (Bonte et al, 2012). To mitigate this cost, animals may prospect the environment within their potential dispersal range to obtain information about dispersal options (Bocedi, Heinonen, & Travis, 2012;Delgado, Barton, Bonte, & Travis, 2014;Ponchon, Garnier, Gr emillet, & Boulinier, 2015). Indeed, dispersal decisions often appear to be informed and based on an evaluation of the current and potential future habitat (Clobert, Le Galliard, Cote, Meylan, & Massot, 2009).…”