Predicting Point of Collision and Estimating the Ship Movement as Evaluation Method of Collision Risk

Abstract

Marine traffic safety has been an important research issue in recent years due to high number of maritime accident majorly ship collision. Measuring the collision risk can be useful for navigator to maneuver the ship based on appropriate decision for collision avoidance. The process of collision between vessels can be expressed by predicting the point where the ship would be likely to meet and the collision may occurs using the geometry of the ship's position. This study also utilized the ship trajectory to estimate the future position of the vessel and compared it with the predicted point in geometry calculation result. The collision risk will occur when ships meet in the same position in the same time based on the ship's movement prediction. Thus, the simplest model to evaluate the ship collision risk by using matrices and linear algorithm were performed. In this paper, Automatic Identification System (AIS) data is utilized and linear algorithm is employed to predict the ship movement. This study resulted the possibly position of collision and predicted the new coordinate's position of the ship in t time. The proposed method can be considered as a first step to conduct collision avoidance and to improve navigation of ships in narrow and shallow waterways.