Predicting Perceived Stress Related to the Covid-19 Outbreak through Stable Psychological Traits and Machine Learning Models

Abstract

The unexpected COVID-19 outbreak and subsequent lockdown impositions are having a significant impact on people’s day-to-day life, confronting Western countries with hitherto unknown contagion threats and restrictions on freedoms. Given the serious effects of stress on physical and mental health, the stressful impact of the COVID-19 emergency represents an important public health issue. The present study assessed the stressful impact of the COVID-19 epidemic in Italy, identifying possible mediators of perceived stress (sociodemographic variables and stable psychological traits). High levels of perceived stress were found in the Italian population. Being female, having low income and living with other people were associated with higher levels of stress. Higher rates of emotional stability, self-control, positive coping style and internal locus of control were protective factors against psychological distress. These results may provide indications for early and targeted prevention and intervention programs.

Risk Perceptions and Psychological Effects During the Italian COVID-19 Emergency

“…In cases as such one, the mass media serves as a 'social amplification' since they allow people both to learn about the risk message and interpret it (Social Amplification of Risk Framework; Kasperson et al, 1988), hence the mass media amplify or weaken the public's perception of risk (Chong and Choy, 2018;Ali et al, 2019). Our finding might be understood by considering that the real risk and threat perceived by people was the limited sense of predictability and controllability assigned to the whole situation, rather than the virus per se (Flesia et al, 2020). This role played by the mass media has been traced in several health communication studies such as that on Avian flu in Hong Kong and the United States (Fung et al, 2011), 2009 H1N1 flu virus (Oh et al, 2015), bovine spongiform encephalopathy (Paek et al, 2016), or 2015 Middle East Respiratory Syndrome coronavirus in South Korea (Oh et al, 2020).…”

“…Over the years, the vast majority of literature on risk perception has recommended the inclusion of cognitive, emotional and social dimensions which directly or indirectly characterize and influence people's risk perception (Slovic, 1987(Slovic, , 1999Slovic et al, 2000;Brug et al, 2004;Renn, 2006;Oh et al, 2015Oh et al, , 2020van der Linden, 2015van der Linden, , 2017Flesia et al, 2020). Using data collected during the 2015 Middle Eastern respiratory syndrome (MERS-CoV) outbreak in South Korea, empirical evidence suggested an association between risk perception and level of trust in social organizations (Yang and Cho, 2017).…”

“…As a support, empirical evidence stressed the extent to which the intolerance of uncertainty is associated with anxiety and mood disorders (Boelen and Reijntjes, 2009), peaked levels of worry and rumination (Buhr and Dugas, 2006), and behaviors such as information seeking or monitoring and complying with recommendations (Rosen and Knäuper, 2009;Rosen et al, 2007). Flesia et al (2020) recently revealed that the unpredictability and uncontrollability of the COVID-19 lockdown had a notable impact on predicting stress perceived during the emergency.…”

“…It has so far claimed hundreds of thousands of lives and has resulted in confinement, enforced separation of families and friends and the restriction of movement and personal freedom. All these factors have contributed to great psychological distress and have forced people to look for new strategies to cope with and adjust to the emergency (Flesia et al, 2020;Liu et al, 2020;Losada-Baltar et al, 2020;Orrù et al, 2020;Polizzi et al, 2020;Wang et al, 2020). Wang et al (2020) assessed the levels of psychological impact, anxiety, depression, and stress during the earliest phase of COVID-19 in China, finding a moderate-to-severe distress in more than half of their studied sample.…”

For the Greater Good? The Devastating Ripple Effects of the Covid-19 Crisis

“…Although the Covid-19 outbreak has caused a tremendous amount of stress on the general population ( Zhang et al, 2020 ), prior research has identified stable psychological traits, and several circumstances that predict perceived stress under these circumstances ( Flesia et al, 2020 ). People can react to prolonged stress with coping, which can range from functional, such as a healthy lifestyle and seeking support to more dysfunctional, such as withdrawal and substance use (See Figure 1 ).…”