Predicting long-term risk for relationship dissolution using nonparametric conditional survival trees.

Abstract

Identifying risk factors for divorce or separation is an important step in the prevention of negative individual outcomes and societal costs associated with relationship dissolution. Programs that aim to prevent relationship distress and dissolution typically focus on changing processes that occur during couple conflict, although the predictive ability of conflict-specific variables has not been examined in the context of other factors related to relationship dissolution. The authors examine whether emotional responding and communication during couple conflict predict relationship dissolution after controlling for overall relationship quality and individual well-being. Using nonparametric conditional survival trees, the study at hand simultaneously examined the predictive abilities of physiological (systolic and diastolic blood pressure, heart rate, cortisol) and behavioral (fundamental frequency; f0) indices of emotional responding, as well as observationally coded positive and negative communication behavior, on long-term relationship stability after controlling for relationship satisfaction and symptoms of depression. One hundred thirty-six spouses were assessed after participating in a randomized clinical trial of a relationship distress prevention program as well as 11 years thereafter; 32.5% of the couples' relationships had dissolved by follow up. For men, the only significant predictor of relationship dissolution was cortisol change score (p = .012). For women, only f0 range was a significant predictor of relationship dissolution (p = .034). These findings highlight the importance of emotional responding during couple conflict for long-term relationship stability.

Couple Conflict in Parents of Children with versus without Autism: Self-Reported and Observed Findings

“…Couple conflict has been shown to play an integral role in the quality and survival of marital relationships in studies on the general population (Fincham & Beach, 1999; Gottman, 2014; Kliem et al., 2015). Parents of children with ASD have been found to be at risk for poor marital outcomes including low marital satisfaction, poor marital adjustment, and divorce (e.g., Brobst et al, 2009; Gau et al, 2012; Hartley et al, 2010; Santamaria et al, 2012).…”

“…Arguably, theory and research on the general population indicate that the most robust predictor of marital quality is couple conflict (e.g., Fincham & Beach, 1999; Gottman, 2014; Kliem, Weusthoff, Hahlweg, Baucom, 2015). How frequently and severely couples disagree and how couples manage these disagreements (i.e., conflict resolution strategies) are critical to healthy, satisfying, and long-lasting relationships.…”

Fundamental frequency during couple conflict: An analysis of physiological, behavioral, and sex-linked information encoded in vocal expression.

“…Finally, f 0 range has been linked to more aspects of couple functioning both concurrently and longitudinally than have other f 0 parameters. Greater range of f 0 has been linked to poorer responses to behaviorally based couple therapies over time (Baucom, Atkins, Simpson, & Christensen, 2009), impaired memory of communication skills training 11 years after participation in a relationship education program (Baucom, Weusthoff, Atkins, & Hahlweg, 2012b), and increased risk for divorce over a 10-year period (Kliem, Weusthoff, Baucom, & Hahlweg, 2013). F 0 range was, therefore, chosen as the parameter of interest for the current study.…”

The siren song of vocal fundamental frequency for romantic relationships

“…There is good evidence that partners in communication directly respond to each other’s f 0 without being aware of this fact (Gregory and Webster, 1996). Similar to cardiovascular indices of arousal (e.g., HR), f 0 seems to encode aspects of emotional arousal that are part of an autonomic process not entirely controllable by a speaker, similar to conditioned emotional responses (Kliem et al, 2012). …”

“…Instructions for the tasks were standardized, and recordings of the interactions were videotaped during assessment sessions conducted in research laboratories. Participants were either English (Baucom et al, 2009, 2011), or German (Baucom et al, 2012b; Kliem et al, 2012; Weusthoff et al, 2013) native speakers (for a detailed description of the studies included in this review, please see Table 1 ).…”