Predicting Long-term Production Behavior of the Marcellus Shale

Nelson, Brad Thomas; Belyadi, Fatemeh; Mashayekhi, A.; Aminian, K.; Ameri, S.

doi:10.2118/169489-ms

Cited by 9 publications

(6 citation statements)

References 11 publications

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“…In contrast, the flow-cell model proposed by Weijermars and coworkers [1][2][3] can predict future well performance using a type well, even when completion designs and well spacing are varied (see Section 2.2 and onward). Nelson et al [12] used the three most popular decline curve equations (Arps, Duong, and Power Law Exponential) on field data from the Marcellus that were first history matched with a numerical simulator. With 30 years of production data generated by the numerical simulator, any of the three DCA methods turned out rather accurate (Figure 2, R 2 ≥ 0.95).…”

Section: Dca Models For Marcellus Wellsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Predicting the Performance of Undeveloped Multi-Fractured Marcellus Gas Wells Using an Analytical Flow-Cell Model (FCM)

Waters

Weijermars

2021

Energies

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The objective of the present study is to predict how changes in the fracture treatment design parameters will affect the production performance of new gas wells in a target zone of the Marcellus shale. A recently developed analytical flow-cell model can estimate future production for new wells with different completion designs. The flow-cell model predictions were benchmarked using historic data of 11 wells and 6 different completion designs. First, a type well was generated and used with the flow-cell model to predict the performance of the later infill wells—with variable completion designs—based off the performance of earlier wells. The flow-cell model takes into account known hyperbolic forecast parameters (qi, Di, and b-factor) and fracture parameters (height, half-length, and spacing) of a type well. Next, the flow-cell model generates the hyperbolic decline parameters for an offset well based on the selected changes in the fracture treatment design parameters. Using a numerical simulator, the flow-cell model was verified as an accurate modeling technique for forecasting the production performance of horizontal, multi-fractured, gas wells.

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Section: Dca Models For Marcellus Wellsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Predicting the Performance of Undeveloped Multi-Fractured Marcellus Gas Wells Using an Analytical Flow-Cell Model (FCM)

Waters

Weijermars

2021

Energies

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“…after a short limited production time to get a good constant values that will give more accurate production prediction. 3. A number of correlation were developed to adjust the Arps DCA constants obtained from limited production history to achieve more accurate production prediction.…”

Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Predicting Production Behavior of the Marcella Shale by Using Arps Equation

Alabdulkareem¹

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The behavior of the horizontal wells producing from Marcellus shale is not fully understood because of the limited production history. As a result a method of predicting the long term production is needed. A number of production decline curve analysis models have been proposed for application to unconventional gas reservoirs. The problem is that the reliable production prediction method are not available when production history from Marcellus shale horizontal wells is limited. In this study, production and completion data from Marcellus shale wells were collected to build a generic model The generic model was then used in conjunction with a commercial dual-porosity numerical model which include the adsorbed gas to simulate long term production profiles for Marcellus shale horizontal wells with multiple hydraulic fractured stages. Subsequently, the simulation of the production profiles were utilized to develop correlations for adjusting the conventional decline curve (Arps) constants (, ,) obtained from the limited production history to accurately predict the long term production performance. The impacts of the formation and fracture properties on the decline curve constants were investigated. Finally, the correlations were utilized to confirm the accuracy of the predicted production rates from a Marcellus shale horizontal well based on the available early production history. iii Dedication I dedicate this thesis to my parents, who without their support and believe in me, I would not be able to finish my Master and who without I would not be who I became. So, thank you and may god bless your souls.

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“…years the effect of permeability will be diminished and there is not much difference in errors compared to the base case model (less than 0.5% for a and m; and 10% for q 1 and q ∞ ). However, as hydraulic fractures are spaced closely and the BDF period happens earlier with 13 stages, the errors are very minimal in compare to the seven stages scenario (Nelson, 2014). However, after 15 years the effect of permeability will be diminished and there is not much difference in errors compared to the base case model (less than 1% for n and d i ; and 0.2% for q i ).…”

Section: Duong Decline Curve Analysismentioning

confidence: 93%

Analysis of Production Data from Horizontal Shale Wells Using Decline Curves

Mashayekhi¹

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Recent interest in the exploitation of Marcellus shale play, using horizontal drilling and multistage hydraulic fracturing, has increased the demand for reliable estimation of recoverable reserves from ultra-low permeability shale gas formations. Due to the limited field experience, the production performances of Marcellus shale gas reservoirs as well as the key parameters that affect the long-term production of the horizontal wells have not been well-established. Among all the prediction methods, only the Decline Curve Analysis (DCA) technique has proved successful in forecasting production data rapidly and to a high degree of accuracy. Several DCA models including conventional Arps, PLE, and Duong have been utilized in this study to determine the most appropriate method for production data from horizontal Marcellus shale wells. Fekete (Fast Evolution) simulator has been used to generate the thirty year production data from 3000 feet of horizontal lateral. The two base scenarios include seven and thirteen hydraulic fracture stages. The gas adsorbed to shale is also considered. The applicability of several DCA models to shale gas production history was examined using the simulated production profiles. The impact of the permeability, fracture half length, and matrix porosity on DCA models constants were also investigated. Finally, the proposed ratio methodology was applied to the limited production profile (3.5 years of production history) from a well in Upshur County, WV to estimate the DCA constants, and predict the long-term production performance. The prediction results from DCA models then compared to the history-matched simulation model predictions for confirmation.

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Predicting Long-term Production Behavior of the Marcellus Shale

Cited by 9 publications

References 11 publications

Predicting the Performance of Undeveloped Multi-Fractured Marcellus Gas Wells Using an Analytical Flow-Cell Model (FCM)

Predicting the Performance of Undeveloped Multi-Fractured Marcellus Gas Wells Using an Analytical Flow-Cell Model (FCM)

Predicting Production Behavior of the Marcella Shale by Using Arps Equation

Analysis of Production Data from Horizontal Shale Wells Using Decline Curves

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