Predicting Local Dengue Transmission in Guangzhou, China, through the Influence of Imported Cases, Mosquito Density and Climate Variability

Sang, Shaowei; Yin, Wenwu; Bi, Peng; Zhang, Honglong; Wang, Chenggang; Liu, Xiaobo; Bin, Chen; Yang, Weizhong; Liu, Qiyong

doi:10.1371/journal.pone.0102755

Cited by 98 publications

(94 citation statements)

References 43 publications

(53 reference statements)

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“…However, although precipitation appears to be a key driver of the shorter-term changes (this study), urban landscape features, such as recently constructed artificial lakes in Guangzhou, appear to be key drivers of longerterm trends (21). As in other dengue epidemic areas (11,22,23), we find a strong link between dengue incidence and density of Aedes mosquitoes, the vectors of dengue. These findings support the utility of vector population control through, for example, pesticides, Wolbachia bacteria infection of mosquitoes, or habitat measures, for reducing the intensity of dengue outbreaks (24,25).…”

Section: Significancementioning

confidence: 45%

“…Daily records of human dengue cases from 2005 to 2015 were obtained from the China National Notifiable Disease Surveillance System. All human dengue cases were diagnosed according to the diagnostic criteria for Dengue Fever (WS216-2008) enacted by Chinese Ministry of Health (11,33). The information on individual dengue cases included whether they were local or imported (local cases were defined as dengue cases where infection most likely occurred due to local transmission as there was no documentation of travel to dengue-endemic foreign regions; imported cases were those where infection most likely occurred outside of China).…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Climate variation drives dengue dynamics

Stige

Chan

et al. 2016

Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. U.S.A.

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Dengue, a viral infection transmitted between people by mosquitoes, is one of the most rapidly spreading diseases in the world. Here, we report the analyses covering 11 y (2005)(2006)(2007)(2008)(2009)(2010)(2011)(2012)(2013)(2014)(2015) from the city of Guangzhou in southern China. Using the first 8 y of data to develop an ecologically based model for the dengue system, we reliably predict the following 3 y of dengue dynamics-years with exceptionally extensive dengue outbreaks. We demonstrate that climate conditions, through the effects of rainfall and temperature on mosquito abundance and dengue transmission rate, play key roles in explaining the temporal dynamics of dengue incidence in the human population. Our study thus contributes to a better understanding of dengue dynamics and provides a predictive tool for preventive dengue reduction strategies.D engue is one of the most rapidly spreading diseases in the world (1), including within the Guangdong province of southern China (2). During the last 50 y, the incidence of dengue has increased 30-fold with increasing geographic expansion to new countries (1). In 2010, an estimated 390 million dengue infections occurred, of which around 96 million showed symptoms (3). Dengue outbreaks in China were previously thought to be imported and initiated by people traveling to China from dengue-endemic areas elsewhere (4); however, recent studies suggest that dengue may now be endemic to China as well (2). The epidemiological triangle of both dengue fever and dengue hemorrhagic fever, which is the more serious form of dengue, includes hosts (humans), pathogens (one or more of five dengue virus serotypes) (5), and mosquito vectors (Aedes albopictus and Aedes aegypti) with their ecological interactions (6). The dengue outbreaks are qualitatively known to be strongly influenced by temperature (7), humidity, rainfall, and socioeconomic factors like urbanization (8). However, a full understanding of the quantitative nature of such effects is largely lacking. With this paper, we provide such a quantitative understanding of dengue dynamics.In 2014, an extensive dengue outbreak hit China, with 47,127 dengue cases diagnosed, a new record since 1986 (9). Since the 1990s, dengue epidemics have gradually spread from Guangdong, Hainan, and Guangxi provinces (9). We present here a time series analysis of dengue dynamics, using dengue surveillance data for the years 2005−2015 from Guangzhou, the largest city in Guangdong and the city with the most dengue cases in China. We split the main analysis by using the first 8 y to develop a model, and the three remaining years to test that model, as these latter years encompass exceptionally extensive dengue outbreaks.Monthly human dengue incidence data (number of diagnosed cases) were obtained from the China National Notifiable Disease Surveillance System (10) (Fig. 1). Monthly surveillance data of A. albopictus density, the only dengue vector species in Guangzhou, were obtained from local Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (11) (Metho...

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Section: Significancementioning

confidence: 45%

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Climate variation drives dengue dynamics

Stige

Chan

et al. 2016

Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. U.S.A.

Self Cite

187

156

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show abstract

“…Because of the multiple introductions, dengue outbreaks occurred in epidemic seasons in Southern China in the context of suitable weather conditions [42]. Population movement at finer spatial scales contributed to the epidemic foci expansion, and may contribute dengue transmission from one epidemic city to another one within China [6].…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

The Epidemiological Characteristics and Dynamic Transmission of Dengue in China, 2013

Sang

Wang

et al. 2016

PLoS Negl Trop Dis

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BackgroundThere was a dengue epidemic in several regions of China in 2013. No study has explored the dynamics of dengue transmission between different geographical locations with dengue outbreaks in China. The purpose of the study is to analyze the epidemiological characteristics and to explore the dynamic transmission of dengue in China, 2013.Methodology and Principal FindingsRecords of dengue cases of 2013 were obtained from the China Notifiable Disease Surveillance System. Full E-gene sequences of dengue virus detected from the outbreak regions of China were download from GenBank. Geographical Information System and heatmaps were used to describe the epidemiological characteristics. Maximum Likelihood phylogenetic and Bayesian phylogeographic analyses were conducted to explore the dengue dynamic transmission. Yunnan Province and Guangdong Province had the highest imported cases in the 2013 epidemic. In the locations with local dengue transmission, most of imported cases occurred from June to November 2013 while local dengue cases developed from July to December, 2013. There were significant variations for the incidences of dengue, in terms of age distributions, among different geographic locations. However, gender differences were identified in Guangzhou, Foshan and Xishuangbanna. DENV 1–3 were detected in all locations with the disease outbreaks. Some genotypes were detected in more than one locations and more than one genotypes have been detected in several locations. The dengue viruses introduced to outbreak areas were predominantly from Southeast Asia. In Guangdong Province, the phylogeographical results indicated that dengue viruses of DENV 1 were transmitted to neighboring cities Foshan and Zhongshan from Guangzhou city, and then transmitted to Jiangmen city. The virus in DENV 3 was introduced to Guangzhou city, Guangdong Province from Xishuangbanna prefecture, Yunnan Province.ConclusionsRepeated dengue virus introductions from Southeast Asia and subsequent domestic dengue transmission within different regions may have contributed to the dengue epidemics in China, 2013.

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“…Many studies have focused on its epidemiologic features and some influential factors in the regions with high incidence [6][7][8]. Recent studies have revealed that all dengue epidemics in China are caused by imported dengue cases [9][10][11]. In addition to the direct role of imported cases, the epidemics are also attributed to natural factors that affect the breeding and survival of the Aedes mosquitoes, such as climatic (temperature, humidity), vegetative, and socio-economic factors that affect human-mosquito contact, such as population density, population mobility, economic development, and living conditions of a specific city [7,[12][13][14].…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Characterization of dengue epidemics in mainland China over the past decade

Ren

et al. 2015

J Infect Dev Ctries

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Introduction: Dengue is an important public health concern in developing countries. As it is increasingly serious in mainland China, its spatiotemporal variations in this region must be further understood. Methodology: On the basis of the data on dengue cases in 2004-2013 collected from the China Information System for Disease Control and Prevention, examinations of spatiotemporal variations of local, imported, and total dengue cases were conducted to characterize this epidemic at the city scale in China. Results: Local cases in September and October accounted for more than half of the total cases in each year. The cities with more than 50 accumulative local cases were mainly distributed along the southeast coastal areas and southwest border regions of China. In 2004-2013, local dengue transmission (indicated by the number of local cases and the locally infected cities) increased yearly and was closely associated with epidemics (represented by the amount of imported cases and the cities with imported cases). At the city level, local transmission tended to be spatially clustered in the Zhejiang-Fujian coastal area, the Pearl River Delta, and Yunnan-Burma border region, especially in 2005, 2010, 2012, and 2013. Conclusions: The results showed that China's local dengue transmission is spatially and temporally featured, and that the prevalence of this epidemic is mostly related to imported cases from overseas epidemic areas. This study provides useful support for hygiene authorities of central and local governments to take effective measures to prevent and control this disease.

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Predicting Local Dengue Transmission in Guangzhou, China, through the Influence of Imported Cases, Mosquito Density and Climate Variability

Cited by 98 publications

References 43 publications

Climate variation drives dengue dynamics

Climate variation drives dengue dynamics

The Epidemiological Characteristics and Dynamic Transmission of Dengue in China, 2013

Characterization of dengue epidemics in mainland China over the past decade

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