Predicting job performance: A comparison of expert opinion and research findings

Abstract

A survey was conducted of New Zealand personnel consultants. Their beliefs about the validity of various selection tools and their claimed usage of these tools was then compared with the validities in a previously published meta-analysis. The experts claimed to use the predictors they believed to be most valid. However, their beliefs about validity were unrelated to empirically demonstrated validities (Spearman's rho = -0.06). Suggestions were made on the types of research that are needed to improve predictive ability in selection and on the ways in which practitioners can use existing research. AbstractA survey was conducted of New Zealand personnel consultants. Their beliefs about the validity of various selection tools and their claimed usage of these tools was then compared with the validities in a previously published meta-analysis. The experts claimed to use the predictors they believed to be most valid. However, their beliefs about validity were unrelated to empirically demonstrated validities (Spearman's rho = -0.06). Suggestions were made on the types of research that are needed to improve predictive ability in selection and on the ways in which practitioners can use existing research.

New Zealand Personnel Consultants and the Selection Process

“…This study develops further on the relationships and data reported by Dakin and Armstrong (1989). More specifically, this study seeks to establish: 1 the relationship between: the frequency caf use of managerial selection methods and their perceived validity; the frequency of use of managerial selection methods and their reported validity' coefficients from the research literature; the personnel consultants' perceived validity of the selection methods and their reported validity coefficients.…”

“…While there have been a number of unpublished studies relating to the level of use of various selection methods in New Zealand (Harris, 1991;Waugh, 1991;, the amount of published research focusing on the management selection methods employed by New Zealand personnel consultants is limited. The most recent published research is Dakin and Armstrong (1989).…”

“…-Cognitive tests have yielded more respectable levels of validity (Hunter & Hunter, 1984; Guion & Gibson, 1988). While the use of cognitive tests in the UK is increasing (Shakleton & Newell, 1991), low usage and low estimates of effectiveness by 'experts' has been reported in New Zealand (Dakin & Armstrong, 1989;and Harris, 1991).…”

Selecting Forecasting Methods

“…Despite much research evidence, practitioners still ignore the findings. As shown by Ahlburg (1991) and Dakin and Armstrong (1989), they even continue to rely on judgment for personnel predictions, the subject of much of this research.…”

The Ombudsman: Are Top Executives Paid Enough? An Evidence-Based Review

“…For example, intelligence is the single best predictor of job performance (Schmidt and Hunter 1998), yet only 18 percent of the 959 HR professionals surveyed by Rynes et al (2002) identified intelligence as a better predictor of job performance than conscientiousness. Similarly, when personnel experts in New Zealand and the United States were asked to rank the strength of job-performance predictors, the correlation between the experts' rankings and the evidence-based rankings was close to zero (Ahlburg 1992;Dakin and Armstrong 1989). Two surveys of 820 British recruitment consultants found that executives are generally selected using unstructured interviews and character references, procedures with little validity (Clark 1992).…”