Predicting Ionospheric Precursors Before Large Earthquakes Using Neural Network Computing and the Potential Development of an Earthquake Early Warning System

Abstract

Total electron content (TEC) precursors of the Chi-Chi Earthquake, which occurred in Taiwan at 01:47:15 on September 21, 1999 (Taiwan Standard Time, TST), with its epicenter at 23.85° N and 120.82° E, a Richter magnitude (ML) of 7.3 (a moment magnitude (Mw) of 7.6), and a focal depth of 8.00 km, were detected 1, 3, and 4 days before the earthquake using two backpropagation neural network (BPNN) models. These results are consistent with the analysis results of Liu et al. (2001) and Lin (2010). Another TEC precursor was detected on May 13, 2003 (TST), 2 days before the earthquake on May 15, 2003 (TST), with an ML of 5.21. The two BPNN models were to be verified for stability and reliability after performing cross-validation and evaluating the variance in the learning process. For this, the result of the analyzed method can serve as a real-time TEC predicted system for giving any future time as inputs of the two BPNN models. Hence, an earthquake early warning (EEW) system is performable.