Predicting ignitability from firebrands in mature wet eucalypt forests

Cawson, Jane G.; Pickering, Bianca J.; Filkov, Alexander I.; Burton, Jamie E.; Kilinc, Musa; Penman, Trent D.

doi:10.1016/j.foreco.2022.120315

Cited by 12 publications

(5 citation statements)

References 57 publications

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“…Our findings provide new evidence at a high temporal resolution (i.e. daily) of the link between fuel moisture and forest fire activity 32,33 and the potential for fuel moisture-mediated changes-nearly always increases-in risk due to climate change [34][35][36] . A recent study identified VPD thresholds associated with fire activity in North and South America between 2017-2020 using hourly data, with similar findings 37 .…”

Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 64%

Forest fire threatens global carbon sinks and population centres under rising atmospheric water demand

et al. 2022

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Levels of fire activity and severity that are unprecedented in the instrumental record have recently been observed in forested regions around the world. Using a large sample of daily fire events and hourly climate data, here we show that fire activity in all global forest biomes responds strongly and predictably to exceedance of thresholds in atmospheric water demand, as measured by maximum daily vapour pressure deficit. The climatology of vapour pressure deficit can therefore be reliably used to predict forest fire risk under projected future climates. We find that climate change is projected to lead to widespread increases in risk, with at least 30 additional days above critical thresholds for fire activity in forest biomes on every continent by 2100 under rising emissions scenarios. Escalating forest fire risk threatens catastrophic carbon losses in the Amazon and major population health impacts from wildfire smoke in south Asia and east Africa.

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Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 64%

Forest fire threatens global carbon sinks and population centres under rising atmospheric water demand

et al. 2022

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“…Other work conducted in China further demonstrated the importance of wind on the ignition of fuel beds (Yang et al, 2022). Researchers in Australia were interested in better understanding firebrand ignition of wet eucalypt forests from firebrands (Cawson et al, 2022). In their study, firebrands were simulated using cotton cylinders and a sawdust wax-lighter.…”

Section: Firebrand Ignition Studiesmentioning

confidence: 99%

The world is burning: What exactly are firebrands and why should anyone care?

Manzello¹,

Suzuki²

2023

Front. Mech. Eng.

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Large outdoor fires have become commonplace all over the world. The International Organization for Standardization (ISO) defines large outdoor fires as an urban fire, tsunami-generated fire, volcano-generated fire, wildland-urban interface (WUI) fire, wildland fire, or informal settlement fire, where the total burnout area is significant. Perhaps of all the large outdoor fires, it is wildland fires that spread into urban areas, simply called WUI fires that attract the most attention. A glance at the recent headlines in the summer of 2022 reveals numerous catastrophic WUI fires all over Europe. Across the Atlantic Ocean in the USA, there is yet another destructive WUI fire raging in the USA state of California. With the increasing risks from a changing climate, these large outdoor fire disasters are only going to become more and more commonplace all over the world. More homes will be lost and more lives will be lost. It is the authors opinion that a targeted, multi-disciplinary approach is needed to address the large outdoor fire problem. In this short, invited paper to Horizons in Mechanical Engineering, it is argued that large outdoor fire problem is a fascinating and challenging research area and that engineers have the necessary skills and training to impact a problem that influences millions upon millions of people all over the world. An important danger, present in all large outdoor fires, are firebrands. Firebrands are introduced for non-specialist readers, and the most recent literature is reviewed. Several challenges are discussed, in particular, areas where engineers may help move the needle forward on this globally important topic.

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“…A man-caused fire is a forest fire initiated by a human source, such as unattended campfires, rubbish burning, and carelessly discarded cigarettes. Specific anthropogenic fire sources are generally influenced by meteorological conditions and the physical and chemical properties of fuel [5][6][7][8][9][10]. Analyzing the mechanism of human-induced ignition of forest fuels in Guizhou Province and establishing a prediction model for ignition probability and time are significant for the study of forest fire occurrence prediction, prevention, and extinguishment in Guizhou Province and also provide a reference for other man-caused fire research.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Ignition of Forest Fires by Cigarette Butts: Using Pinus massoniana Needles as an Example

Zhang,

Tian

2024

Fire

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As a cigarette butt falls onto the forest surface fuel, it first smolders the fuel, then ignites into flames, and spreads as forest fire under certain conditions. In this study, the needles under a typical stand of P. massoniana were used as the research object. Needle beds with different moisture content and packing ratios were constructed indoors. Cigarette butt-ignition experiments were conducted under different wind velocities, and 30 experiment cycles were conducted under different conditions. There was a total of 5 (packing ratio) × 4 (moisture content) × 6 (wind velocity) = 120 sets of conditions, and a total of 3600 ignition experiments were conducted. The results showed that (1) the total ignition probability of the cigarette butts was 2.36%, which only occurred when the fuelbed moisture content was <10% and the wind velocity was >1 m/s. The ignition time of cigarette butts ranged from 2.73 to 7.25 min. (2) The fuelbed moisture content and wind velocity significantly influenced the ignition probability and time. With an increase in moisture content, the ignition probability of cigarette butts decreased, while the time required for ignition showed an increasing trend. Wind velocity had a dual effect on ignition. The ignition effect was optimal at a wind velocity of 4 m/s. With an increase in wind velocity, the ignition probability first increased and then decreased, and the ignition time first decreased and then increased. (3) The packing ratio had no significant effect on the ignition probability; however, the ignition time significantly decreased as the packing ratio increased. (4) The logistic regression method (LRM), general linear method (GLM), and nonlinear regression method (NLM) were used to establish a prediction model of ignition probability. The prediction effect of GLM was the worst, followed by LRM, and the NLM had the best prediction effect. The GLM was selected to establish the ignition time model, and the error was also within the allowance range. This study elucidated the underlying mechanism of factors affecting cigarette butt-based fuel ignition. In addition, the established prediction model provides a reference for human-caused forest fires and is highly significant for forest fire prevention.

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Predicting ignitability from firebrands in mature wet eucalypt forests

Cited by 12 publications

References 57 publications

Forest fire threatens global carbon sinks and population centres under rising atmospheric water demand

Forest fire threatens global carbon sinks and population centres under rising atmospheric water demand

The world is burning: What exactly are firebrands and why should anyone care?

Ignition of Forest Fires by Cigarette Butts: Using Pinus massoniana Needles as an Example

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