Predicting hybridisation as a consequence of climate change in damselflies

Abstract

Climate change is a key stressor for species. Two major consequences of climate‐induced range shifts are the formation of new areas of geographic overlap (i.e. sympatry) and an increased probability of hybridisation in the de novo created contact zones. One method to effectively quantify the potential of hybridisation is to integrate ecological niche modelling and the propensity to hybridisation based on genetic divergence. In this paper, we have applied this methodology to predict hybridisation outcomes following different scenarios of climate change in 30 species of Argia damselflies. We (i) investigated how climate change may affect species’ distributions; (ii) quantified if changed distributions generate new areas of sympatry between species; (iii) calculated the propensity to hybridise based on genetic divergence between species; and (iv) integrated these data to predict the future potential of species to hybridise. We found that the distribution of 29 of the 30 species was affected by a change in climate which led to a general increase in sympatric overlap among species. The degree of genetic divergence among the 108 species’ combinations ranged from 0.06% to 0.36%. Based on the sympatric overlap and genetic divergence, it can be predicted that 97 of the species pairs are likely to hybridise in the future. Our results are useful to forecast how highly diverse and closely related groups, such as Argia damselflies, may respond to a change in climate and how this can impact the potential of species mixing under a scenario of increased global warming.

Online community photo-sharing in entomology: a large-scale review with suggestions on best practices

“…“Habitat, distribution, niche and occupancy modeling” publications encompassed a diverse range of analyses that sought to predict where species might occur in the past, present or future. Specifically, publications examined how glaciation cycles (Menchetti et al 2021b, Morgan and Huang 2021, Ortego et al 2021) and volcanism (Schramm et al 2021) have affected distribution and speciation, if atmospheric events affect the movement of invasive species (Siljamo et al 2020), how dispersal barriers affect potential and realized ranges (Amundrud et al 2017), estimated suitable habitat and ranges for native (Hassall 2012, Perger et al 2021) and invasive species (Jie et al 2020), where suitable habitat occurs during different periods of insect migration (Castañeda et al 2019), and how suitable habitat and species ranges may shift under various climate change predictions (Avtaeva et al 2020, Jaskuła et al 2021a) and if such shifts imperil species through displacement or hybridization (Sánchez-Guillén et al 2014, Nava-Bolaños et al 2019). Many publications in this category used data from Odonata Central due to the large number of records the site hosted early in the development of community science websites and because every record is vetted by experts before being posted.…”

What determines mate choices? Heterospecific mating in Sympetrum dragonflies

“…Reproductive interference also can be associated with biological invasion (D'Amore et al, 2009;Kondo et al, 2009). These changes in species distribution, whether caused by climate change, biological invasion or other causes, can pose serious threats to native species populations, especially for endemic or endangered species (Gröning & Hochkirch, 2008;Nava-Bolaños et al, 2019).…”

“…The probability of secondary contact increases with climate change when there is a shift in the range of species, leading to range expansion and the creation of new zones of sympatric overlap between previously allopatric species. In most cases, species shift their distribution towards higher latitudes and altitudes because of the increasing temperatures (Chen et al., 2011; Nava‐Bolaños et al., 2019; Ramalho et al., 2023). Some studies suggest that after a prolonged period of allopatry, sympatric species can lose the ability to distinguish between species, subsequently leading to increased heterospecific mating and hybridisation after secondary contact (Wellenreuther et al., 2010).…”