Predicting Hurricane Intensity and Associated Hazards: A Five-Year Real-Time Forecast Experiment with Assimilation of Airborne Doppler Radar Observations

Abstract

F i g . I . Evolution o f y e a rly m ean absolu te e rro rs a t d if fe r e n t fo recast lead tim e s by th e N a tio n a l H u rric a n e C e n te r ( N H C ) fo r (a ) tra c k (c e n te r position, in nautical m iles) and (b ) in te n s ity (m a x im u m 10-m w in d speed, in kn o ts ). AMERICAN METEOROLOGICAL SOCIETY JANUARY 2015 B A ltt | 25 The Life Cycles of Extratropical Cyclones is availa b le for $75 list/$55 members. To order, visit w w w.ametsoc.org/amsbookstore, or see the order form a t the back of this issue. AMERICAN METEOROLOGICAL SOCIETY JANUARY 2 0 15 BAlfr | 33

Advances in Convection-Permitting Tropical Cyclone Analysis and Prediction through EnKF Assimilation of Reconnaissance Aircraft Observations

“…For the WRF deterministic forecast after the EnKF analysis, the two inner domains are moving by following the tropical cyclone center with the WRF vortex-following technique. The WRF configurations and physics are the same as used in Zhang and Weng (2015).…”

“…The numbers listed at the top of each panel are the sample size of the homogenized verification. The figure is adapted from Zhang and Weng (2015).…”

“…The rest of the article further extends the experimental hurricane analysis and prediction system of Weng and Zhang (2012) and Zhang and Weng (2015) to assimilate other aircraft reconnaissance data including flight-level data and dropsondes as well as standard GTS observations with a continuously cycling EnKF based on WRF. The following section first introduces the further enhanced cycling WRF-EnKF system along with the experiment design.…”

Current Efforts for Prediction and Assessment of Natural Disasters: Earthquakes, Tsunamis, Volcanic eruptions, Hurricanes, Tornados, and Floods

“…Zhang et al [116] combined Doppler radar radial velocity observations with ensemble Kalman lter (EKF). The use of EKF is also presented by Weng et al [129], Weng and Zhang [117], Poterjoy and Zhang [130], Zhang and Weng [131], and Lu et al [132]. The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) is also experimenting with ensemble techniques such as EKF [133].…”

The Near-Real-Time SCALE-LETKF System: A Case of the September 2015 Kanto-Tohoku Heavy Rainfall

“…A regional NWP system can be used to increase the model resolution of an area of interest at a relatively low cost. Therefore, regional EnKF systems have also been widely developed and tested (Zhang et al 2006;Meng and Zhang 2007;Torn and Hakim 2008;Anderson et al 2009;Miyoshi and Aranami 2006;Miyoshi and Kunii 2012;Kunii 2014), and they have shown promising results in analyzing and predicting a variety of mesoscale phenomena, such as tropical cyclones (e.g., Zhang et al 2009;Zhang and Weng 2015;Torn 2010) and convective rainstorms (e.g., Yussouf et al 2013;Kunii 2014;Jones et al 2015).…”