Predicting how climate change threatens the prey base of Arctic marine predators

Florko, Katie R. N.; Tai, Travis C.; Cheung, William W. L.; Ferguson, Steven H.; Sumaila, U. Rashid; Yurkowski, David J.; Auger‐Méthé, Marie

doi:10.1111/ele.13866

Cited by 40 publications

(29 citation statements)

References 69 publications

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“…Behavioral responses to air gun pulses and ship noise have recently been demonstrated for narwhals ( 33 , 34 ). Consequently, the expected rise in sea temperature might affect not only the geographical range of these Arctic species but also their space use ( 35 ), phenology ( 36 ), abundance ( 10 ), foraging success ( 37 ), and survival rate ( 38 ), raising serious concerns about how these cold-adapted species will cope with anthropogenic stressors originating from both resource exploitation and climate change.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Future seasonal changes in habitat for Arctic whales during predicted ocean warming

et al. 2022

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Ocean warming is causing shifts in the distributions of marine species, but the location of suitable habitats in the future is unknown, especially in remote regions such as the Arctic. Using satellite tracking data from a 28-year-long period, covering all three endemic Arctic cetaceans (227 individuals) in the Atlantic sector of the Arctic, together with climate models under two emission scenarios, species distributions were projected to assess responses of these whales to climate change by the end of the century. While contrasting responses were observed across species and seasons, long-term predictions suggest northward shifts (243 km in summer versus 121 km in winter) in distribution to cope with climate change. Current summer habitats will decline (mean loss: −25%), while some expansion into new winter areas (mean gain: +3%) is likely. However, comparing gains versus losses raises serious concerns about the ability of these polar species to deal with the disappearance of traditional colder habitats.

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Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Future seasonal changes in habitat for Arctic whales during predicted ocean warming

et al. 2022

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“…How do factors such as interannual variability, climate change, fisheries and habitat loss affect prey availability? Climate change, which is rapid in some regions, is predicted to have considerable impacts on the distribution, biomass, energy density and body size of prey species ( Flores et al, 2012 ; Yasumiishi et al, 2020 ; Florko et al, 2021 ). Such changes have clear bioenergetic implications for marine mammals and the ecosystems they inhabit ( Costa, 2008 ; Laidre et al, 2020 ; Gallagher et al, 2022 ).…”

Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Key questions in marine mammal bioenergetics

McHuron

Adamczak

Arnould

et al. 2022

Conservation Physiology

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Bioenergetic approaches are increasingly used to understand how marine mammal populations could be affected by a changing and disturbed aquatic environment. There remain considerable gaps in our knowledge of marine mammal bioenergetics, which hinder the application of bioenergetic studies to inform policy decisions. We conducted a priority-setting exercise to identify high-priority unanswered questions in marine mammal bioenergetics, with an emphasis on questions relevant to conservation and management. Electronic communication and a virtual workshop were used to solicit and collate potential research questions from the marine mammal bioenergetic community. From a final list of 39 questions, 11 were identified as ‘key’ questions because they received votes from at least 50% of survey participants. Key questions included those related to energy intake (prey landscapes, exposure to human activities) and expenditure (field metabolic rate, exposure to human activities, lactation, time-activity budgets), energy allocation priorities, metrics of body condition and relationships with survival and reproductive success and extrapolation of data from one species to another. Existing tools to address key questions include labelled water, animal-borne sensors, mark-resight data from long-term research programs, environmental DNA and unmanned vehicles. Further validation of existing approaches and development of new methodologies are needed to comprehensively address some key questions, particularly for cetaceans. The identification of these key questions can provide a guiding framework to set research priorities, which ultimately may yield more accurate information to inform policies and better conserve marine mammal populations.

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“…The copyright holder for this preprint this version posted November 18, 2022. ; https://doi.org/10.1101/2022.11.17.516808 doi: bioRxiv preprint Prey data. We used estimated prey biomass data ( [31], Fig. 3) from a dynamic bioclimate envelope model, which modelled spatiotemporal changes in the growth, population dynamics, habitat suitability, and movement of each prey fish species from year 1950 to 2100 based on changes in ocean conditions (e.g., sea temperature, pH, salinity) [42,43].…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…We analysed the movement and diving ecology of 53 ringed seals with over 14,000 estimated locations (see methods) in Hudson Bay using the recently developed R package mpmm (move-persistence mixed-effects model package; [21]) that incorporated modelled prey biomass estimates [31]. Ringed seals are the most abundant and well-distributed pinniped in the Arctic, where they play an important role in the marine food web as the main conduit of energy between lower trophic levels and top predators (polar bears Ursus maritimus ) When foraging, seals frequently return to a consistent depth on successive dives [32].…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Linking movement and dive data to prey distribution models: new insights in foraging behaviour and potential pitfalls of movement analyses

Florko

Shuert

Cheung

et al. 2022

Preprint

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Background: Animal movement data are regularly used to infer foraging behaviour and relationships to environmental characteristics, often to help identify critical habitat. To characterize foraging, movement models make a set of assumptions rooted in theory, for example, time spent foraging in an area increases with higher prey density. Methods: We assessed the validity of these assumptions by associating horizontal movement and diving of satellite-telemetered ringed seals (Pusa hispida) - an opportunistic predator - in Hudson Bay, Canada, to modelled prey data and environmental proxies. Results: Modelled prey biomass data performed better than their environmental proxies (e.g., sea surface temperature) for explaining seal movement, however movement was not related to foraging effort. Counter to theory, seals appeared to forage more in areas with relatively lower prey diversity and biomass, potentially due to reduced foraging efficiency in those areas. Conclusions: Our study highlights the need to validate movement analyses with prey data to effectively estimate the relationship between prey availability and foraging behaviour.

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Predicting how climate change threatens the prey base of Arctic marine predators

Cited by 40 publications

References 69 publications

Future seasonal changes in habitat for Arctic whales during predicted ocean warming

Future seasonal changes in habitat for Arctic whales during predicted ocean warming

Key questions in marine mammal bioenergetics

Linking movement and dive data to prey distribution models: new insights in foraging behaviour and potential pitfalls of movement analyses

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