Predicting hatchability of layer breeders and identifying effects of animal related and environmental factors

Abstract

In this study, a data driven approach was used by applying linear regression and machine learning methods to understand animal related and environmental factors affecting hatchability. Data was obtained from a parent stock and grand-parent stock hatchery, including 1,737 batches of eggs incubated in the years 2010–2018. Animal related factors taken into consideration were strain (white vs. brown strain), breeder age, and egg weight uniformity at the start of incubation, whereas environmental factors considered were length of egg storage before incubation, egg weight loss during incubation and season. Effects of these factors on hatchability were analyzed with 3 different models: a linear regression ( LR ) model, a random forest ( RF ) model and a gradient boosting machine ( GBM ) model. In part one of the study, hatchability was predicted and the performance of the models in terms of coefficient of determination ( R 2 ) and root mean square error ( RMSE ) was compared. The ensemble machine learning models (RF: R 2 = 0.35, RMSE = 8.41; GBM: R 2 = 0.31, RMSE = 8.67) appeared to be superior than the LR model (R 2 = 0.27, RMSE = 8.92) as indicated by the higher R 2 and lower RMSE. In part 2 of the study, effects of these factors on hatchability were investigated more into detail. Hatchability was affected by strain, breeder age, egg weight uniformity, length of egg storage and season, but egg weight loss didn't have a significant effect on hatchability. Additionally, four 2-way interactions (breeder age × egg weight uniformity, breeder age × length of egg storage, breeder age × strain, season × strain) were significant on hatchability. It can be concluded that hatchability of parent stock and grand-parent stock layer breeders is affected by several animal related and environmental factors, but the size of the predicted effects varies between the methods used. In this study, 3 models were used to predict hatchability and to analyze effects of animal related and environmental factors on hatchability. This opens new horizons for future studies on hatchery data by taking the advantage of applying machine learning methods, that can fit complex datasets better than LR and applying statistical analysis.

Welfare of laying hens on farm

“…Also here, genetic background will play a role, but in interaction with incubation conditions and other factors. For instance, in a large study focusing on data from one of the major breeding companies, it was found that hatchability was affected by the hybrid, breeder age, egg weight uniformity, length of egg storage and season (Bouba et al., 2021).…”

Effect of the Line and Age of Female Broiler Breeder on Hatchability Performance of Eggs

“…It is not clear to what extent the changes in the hatchability of fertile eggs in relation to flock age are caused by associated changes in egg weight or breeder line (Vieira et al, 2005). Therefore, it is important to know the extent to which changes in hatchability are due to age of the hen (Bouba et al, 2021), the breeder line (Ozlu et al, 2021a), or a combination of the two factors (Table 1).…”

“…There is a complex relationship between these factors. In the case of the reproductive female, her age is associated with a decrease in albumen height and viscosity, hatching time, and subsequent embryogenesis (Tona et al, 2002;Bouba et al, 2021;Ozlu et al, 2021b). The most obvious characteristic of eggs from young breeder females is low egg weight (Ozlu et al, 2021a).…”

Возрастная Динамика Морфологических, Биохимических И Инкубационных Показателей Яиц Кур Родительских Форм Кросса "Смена 9" Долгорукова А.М., Тишенкова М.С.

“…[2]. При анализе таких факторов с применением методов линейной регрессии и искусственного интеллекта было показано, что самое сильное влияние на выводимость оказали возраст производителей, продолжительность хранения яиц, происхождение птицы и однородность массы яиц при инкубации [3]. С возрастом мясных кур значительно увеличивается эмбриональная смертность, что приводит к снижению выводимости яиц [4,5].…”