Predicting global geographical distribution of Lolium rigidum (rigid ryegrass) under climate change

Abstract

Lolium rigidum L. (rigid ryegrass) is one of the most extensive and harmful weeds in winter cereal crops. A bioclimatic model for this species was developed using CLIMEX. The model was validated with records from North America and Oceania and used to assess the global potential distribution of L. rigidum under the current climate and under two climate change scenarios. Both scenarios represent contrasting temporal patterns of economic development and carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) emissions. The projections under current climatic conditions indicated that L. rigidum does not occupy the full extent of the climatically suitable area available to it. Under future climate scenarios, the suitable potential area increases by 3·79% in the low-emission CO 2 scenario and by 5·06% under the most extreme scenario. The model's projection showed an increase in potentially suitable areas in North America, Europe, South America and Asia; while in Africa and Oceania it indicated regression. These results provide the necessary knowledge for identifying and highlighting the potential invasion risk areas and for establishing the grounds on which to base the planning and management measures required.

Interference of weeds in vegetable crop cultivation, in the changing climate of Southern Europe with emphasis on drought and elevated temperatures: a review

“…For instance, Castellanos-Frías et al (2016) reported that the geographic distribution of L. rigidum in Europe is expected to change, expanding to regions that are currently too cold for its survival but may not be in the near future. According to Castellanos-Frías et al (2016), suitable regions in Europe for this weed species are predicted to increase by 108.7 or 167.3% depending on different climate change scenarios. Climate change can also influence the geographical distribution of crops and their losses caused by A. myosuroides.…”

“…If these projections are realized, it is anticipated that significant changes in weed flora composition and distribution will take place throughout Europe (Fig. 3) and other parts of the globe (McDonald et al ., 2009; Castellanos-Frías et al ., 2016). Predicting weed invasion in a specific region undergoing climate change is a major challenge (Clements and DiTommaso, 2012).…”

“…All these changes have major consequences for human activities and the environment (Chen et al ., 2012; Trenberth, 2018). Furthermore, the increased risk to agricultural production seems to be one of the most important consequences of climate change (Cline, 2007; Evangelista et al ., 2013), while the distribution of several wild plant species is expected to change (McDonald et al ., 2009; Castellanos-Frías et al ., 2016; Reif et al ., 2017). On the contrary, it is expected to have a positive effect on agricultural production in high-latitude regions such as Russia and Canada, while its effects on other areas of the world are debatable (Lewis and Witham, 2012).…”

“…Climate change is already occurring in Europe and it is anticipated that significant changes in weed flora will take place throughout Europe in the near future (Peters et al ., 2014; Castellanos-Frías et al ., 2016). Enhanced growth of C4 weeds (the species that use the C4 carbon fixation pathway [Hyvönen, 2011; Rodenburg et al ., 2011]), spreading of perennial weeds such as Solanum elaeagnifolium Cav.…”

Effective Preemergence Herbicides for Rigid Ryegrass (Lolium rigidum Gaud.) Control in Irrigated Bread Wheat (Triticum aestivum L.)

“…Rigid ryegrass has many features that contribute to the evolution of resistance, including i) a very well adapted species to the Mediterranean climate, ii) a propensity to occur in large densities, iii) the high genetic diversity within populations, iv) a self-incompatibility and cross-pollinated species, v) the potential to set a large amount of seed, allowing any resistant survivors to significantly increase the resistance status of a population, vi) the short-lived innate dormancy, which results in a large amount of the seedbank germinating in the next season, vii) the short soil seedbank life, and viii) the ability to rapidly evolve resistance to herbicides (Castellanos-Frias et al, 2016;Bararpour et al, 2017).…”