Predicting Global Forest Reforestation Potential

Abstract

Executive SummaryForests are important determinants of the carbon cycle, and they provide countless ecosystem services to support billions of people worldwide. Global-scale forest restoration is one of our most effective weapons in the fight against biodiversity loss, rural poverty and climate change. In this report, we generate a spatial map of tree density within the potential forest restoration areas delineated by the IUCN/WRI's 'Atlas of Forest Landscape Restoration Opportunities' to estimate the potential number of trees that could be restored at a global scale. We also estimate the number of trees that might be saved by avoiding deforestation in currently forested areas.We show that the restoration areas have the capacity to support a total of 1.33 trillion trees. However, given that a considerable proportion of these areas already contain forests, we estimate that 589 billion new trees (larger than 10 cm diameter) could be restored within these areas, which would have the potential to store 65-91 Gigatonnes of carbon after reaching forest maturation. These values will increase marginally over time, as deforestation is responsible for the removal of living trees within the restoration areas. However, if only 50% or 25% of the mosaic areas (the largest of the designated restoration types) are available for reforestation, this total number will fall to approximately 360, or 246 billion trees, respectively, with corresponding decreases in potential carbon storage. Given that anthropogenic carbon emissions are currently in the order of 9-12 Gigatonnes per year, effective global-scale restoration might potentially have a valuable impact on global-scale climate mitigation over the rest of this century.This report was produced with funding from WWF-UK as part of the Trillion Trees programme with the Wildlife Conservation Society and BirdLife International

Nature‐based framework for sustainable afforestation in global drylands under changing climate

“…Increasing afforestation is intended to counteract desertification and increase carbon sequestration in drylands (Kang et al, 2015; Wocheslander et al, 2016). It is believed that effective global‐scale forest restoration and afforestation, including on drylands, would have a significant impact on global‐scale climate mitigation efforts based on carbon sequestration over the rest of this century (Crowther et al, 2017). During the last decade, there have been several works promoting global afforestation, with those in drylands estimated to account for 36%–42% of potential restoration area (Bastin et al, 2019; Laestadius et al, 2011).…”