Predicting Future Deterioration of Hydraulic Steel Structures with Markov Chain and Multivariate Samples of Statistical Distributions

Riveros, Guillermo A.; Arredondo, Elias

doi:10.1155/2014/360532

Cited by 9 publications

(10 citation statements)

References 9 publications

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“…To counter this unintended situation, the engineers at the U.S. Army Engineer Research and Development Center (ERDC) have been investigating new ways of designing, maintaining, and repairing our navigational infrastructure for the past three decades. The ERDC has been actively contributing to the understanding of HSS distress features through observation; inspection; and physical, analytical, and computational modeling [16][17][18][19][20][21].…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

The Effects of Deteriorated Boundary Conditions on Horizontally Framed Miter Gates

Riveros

Acosta

Lozano

et al. 2021

Metals

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The U.S. navigable infrastructure is a system of waterways dependent upon hydraulic steel structures (HSS) to facilitate the passage of ships and cargo. The system is linear in the sense that if one HSS is impassable, the entire river system is halted at that point. The majority of the HSS in this system were built in the first half of the 20th Century, and over seventy percent of them are past or near past their design life. Miter gates are critical HSS components within the system and many are showing signs of structural distress from continued operation past their design life. Common distress features include shear cracking within the pintle socket, partially missing Quoin blocks, fatigue fracturing, and bolt failure in the pintle region. This article focuses on gaining a fundamental understanding of the consequences of quoin block deterioration on a miter gate. The work was conducted by developing a computational model of a miter gate with different levels of quoin block deterioration. This model was validated using analytical solutions. The deterioration results demonstrated that the miter gate thrust diaphragm and quoin post experienced changes in their limit states due to deterioration. The results also demonstrated that the miter gate could overcome up to 10% of quoin block deterioration.

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Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

The Effects of Deteriorated Boundary Conditions on Horizontally Framed Miter Gates

Riveros

Acosta

Lozano

et al. 2021

Metals

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“…Over eighty percent of the navigation steel structures (NSS) within the United States are near to or exceeding their design life [1,2,3]. Due to deterioration over time and cyclic operation in submerged, highly corrosive environments, NSSs are experiencing fatigue and cracking.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Effects of Adhesive Bond-Slip Behavior on the Capacity of Innovative FRP Retrofits for Fatigue and Fracture Repair of Hydraulic Steel Structures

Lozano

Riveros

2019

Materials

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Over eighty percent of the navigation steel structures (NSS) in the United States have highly deteriorated design boundary conditions, resulting in overloads that cause fatigue cracking. The NSSs’ highly corrosive environment and deterioration of the protective system accelerate the fatigue cracking and cause standard crack repair methods to become ineffective. Numerous studies have assessed and demonstrated the use of carbon fiber reinforced polymers (CFRP) to rehabilitate aging and deteriorated reinforced concrete infrastructure in the aerospace industry. Due to the increase of fatigue and fracture failures of NSS and the shortage of research on CFRP retrofits for submerged steel structures, it is imperative to conduct research on the effects of CFRP repairs on NSS, specifically on the adhesive’s chemical bonding to the steel substrate. This was accomplished by developing a new analytical algorithm for CFRP bond-slip behavior, which is based on Volkersen’s contact shear single lap joint (SLJ) connection. The algorithm was validated by experimental results of fatigue center-cracked large steel plates repaired with CFRP patches. The state of stresses at the crack tip are largely influenced by a combination of the crack tip plasticity radius and overall bond surface area.

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“…Deterministic model at any given time is assumed to be known with certainty being that its condition can be precisely predicted using mathematical functions. Unlike deterministic model, probabilistic-based model is used to predict the future situation of an asset (Ortiz-garcía et al , 2006; Li et al , 2014; Riveros and Arredondo, 2014). Probabilistic-based model is utilised to predict the future performance or conditional state using either continuous probabilistic models or discrete probabilistic models.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Mc Dulling (2006) utilised the Markovian model towards the development of transition probability for the prediction of service life in hospital buildings. Other sectors that have benefited are the railways and bridges (Wellalage et al , 2015; Karunarathna and Dwight, 2013; Morcous et al , 2003), the infrastructure asset management (Han et al , 2014; Kobayashi et al , 2012), hydraulic steel structures (Riveros and Arredondo, 2014), stochastic-based life cycle planning (Voskoglou, 2010; Costello et al , 2005; Zhang and Brani, 2005), offshore structures (Zhang et al , 2016) and mechanical systems (Fang et al , 2016).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Degradation modelling and life expectancy using Markov chain model for carriageway

Tee

Ekpiwhre

Zhang

2018

IJQRM

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Purpose Automated condition surveys have been recently introduced for condition assessment of highway infrastructures worldwide. Accurate predictions of the current state, median life (ML) and future state of highway infrastructures are crucial for developing appropriate inspection and maintenance strategies for newly created as well as existing aging highway infrastructures. The paper aims to discuss these issues. Design/methodology/approach This paper proposes Markov Chain based deterioration modelling using a linear transition probability (LTP) matrix method and a median life expectancy (MLE) algorithm. The proposed method is applied and evaluated using condition improvement between the two successive inspections from the Surface Condition Assessment of National Network of Roads survey of the UK Pavement Management System. Findings The proposed LTP matrix model utilises better insight than the generic or decoupling linear approach used in estimating transition probabilities formulated in the past. The simulated LTP predicted conditions are portrayed in a deterioration profile and a pairwise correlation. The MLs are computed statistically with a cumulative distribution function plot. Originality/value The paper concludes that MLE is ideal for projecting half asset life, and the LTP matrix approach presents a feasible approach for new maintenance regime when more certain deterioration data become available.

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Predicting Future Deterioration of Hydraulic Steel Structures with Markov Chain and Multivariate Samples of Statistical Distributions

Cited by 9 publications

References 9 publications

The Effects of Deteriorated Boundary Conditions on Horizontally Framed Miter Gates

The Effects of Deteriorated Boundary Conditions on Horizontally Framed Miter Gates

Effects of Adhesive Bond-Slip Behavior on the Capacity of Innovative FRP Retrofits for Fatigue and Fracture Repair of Hydraulic Steel Structures

Degradation modelling and life expectancy using Markov chain model for carriageway

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