Predicting fluctuations in widespread interest: Memory decay and goal-related memory accessibility in Internet search trends.

Abstract

Memory and interest respond in similar ways to people's shifting needs and motivations. We therefore tested whether memory and interest might produce similar, observable patterns in people's responses over time. Specifically, the present studies examined whether fluctuations in widespread interest (as measured by Internet search trends) resemble two well-established memory patterns: memory decay and goal-related memory accessibility. We examined national and international events (e.g., Nobel Prize selections, holidays) that produced spikes in widespread interest in certain people and foods. When the events that triggered widespread interest were incidental (e.g., the death of a celebrity), widespread interest conformed to memory decay patterns: It rose quickly, fell slowly according to a power function, and was higher after the event than before it. When the events that triggered widespread interest were goal related (e.g., political elections), widespread interest conformed to patterns of goal-related memory accessibility: It rose slowly, fell quickly according to a sigmoid function, and was lower after the event than before it. Fluctuations in widespread interest over time are thus similar to standard memory patterns observed at the individual level due perhaps to common mechanisms and functions.

Discussing proximal pasts and far futures

“…Compared to future goals, past goals are more likely to have been fulfilled or may be no longer relevant, meaning they are less likely to remain accessible. Data on internet search behavior is consistent with this suggestion (Masicampo & Ambady, 2014). While searches for goal‐related events (e.g., elections) rose slowly prior to the event, they fell quickly after the event occurred.…”

Modeling pedestrians’ interest in locations: A concept to improve simulations of pedestrian destination choice

“…Here we clarify the interest function's psychological groundings, most importantly drawing on the work of Masicampo and Ambady [43]. They provide important findings regarding the interconnections of widespread interest and individuals' interests.…”

“…Masicampo and Ambady [43] connected the concepts of goal-related accessibility, need probability, and widespread interest. Based on -and in agreement with Anderson and Schooler [6] and Förster et al [22], they argue that memory patterns describe a cognitive approach towards goals.…”

“…A qualitative visualization of the concept is shown in Figure 1 (b). The important conceptual difference of our approach to the work of Masicampo and Ambady [43] is that they focused solely on public triggering events (e.g. elections or holidays), whereas this work's primary focus lies on triggering events concerning individuals (e.g.…”

“…The abscissa describes the abstract concept of the need to remember and the ordinate represents the probability for recalling the memory. (b) Generic example of the increasing widespread interest and inhibition in a goal before and after a triggering event[43]. The abscissa is a time scale and the ordinate is an interest scale.…”