Predicting financial performance with intellectual capital using machine learning

Abstract

Purpose This study aims to apply machine learning techniques to efficiently predict leisure firms’ financial performance. Accurate financial forecasting is crucial in leisure and tourism, greatly affecting firms’ strategic decisions and competitive positioning. This study emphasizes the roles of intellectual capital to offer a nuanced understanding of how these types of capital influence firm success. Design/methodology/approach Using comprehensive firm-level data, this study examines several machine learning algorithms’ predictive capacity across a spectrum of industry sectors (general, manufacturing, service) to identify the most effective model and training dataset. These tools are used to evaluate financial metrics such as return on sales, return on assets and sales growth. A range of variables are incorporated into this process to enhance model accuracy and relevance. Findings Results demonstrate the support vector machine algorithm’s exceptional performance based on a training data set from the service sector in predicting leisure firms’ return on sales and sales growth. This algorithm is thus an efficacious strategic forecasting instrument. The variables significantly affecting firm performance include demand variation; organizational, product and technological innovation; synergistic innovation between multiple domains; salary levels; market strategy; and the number of employees. Originality/value By integrating advanced machine learning techniques with the strategic management of intellectual capital, this study presents a sophisticated approach to predicting leisure firms’ financial performance. Findings enrich the discourse on firm performance forecasting and offer actionable insights into strategic planning and resource allocation for practitioners in the leisure and tourism sectors.