Predicting Extinction Risk for Data Deficient Bats

Abstract

Conservation biology aims to identify species most at risk of extinction and to understand factors that forecast species vulnerability. The International Union for Conservation of Nature (IUCN) Red List is a leading source for extinction risk data of species globally, however, many potentially at risk species are not assessed by the IUCN owing to inadequate data. Of the approximately 1150 bat species (Chiroptera) recognized by the IUCN, 17 percent are categorized as Data Deficient. Here, we show that large trait databases in combination with a comprehensive phylogeny can identify which traits are important for assessing extinction risk in bats. Using phylogenetic logistic regressions, we show that geographic range and island endemism are the strongest correlates of binary extinction risk. We also show that simulations using two models that trade-off between data complexity and data coverage provide similar estimates of extinction risk for species that have received a Red List assessment. We then use our model parameters to provide quantitative predictions of extinction risk for 60 species that have not received risk assessments by the IUCN. Our model suggests that at least 20 bat species should be treated as threatened by extinction. In combination with expert knowledge, our results can be used as a quick, first-pass prioritization for conservation action.

Functional diversity of phyllostomid bats in an urban–rural landscape: A scale‐dependent analysis

“…Independent variables are centered and standardized and middle-sized omnivorous bats and hematophagous species, had the highest values for those traits but were almost exclusively recorded in the areas with a high proportion of forest cover. In addition to considering traits related to flying performance as the mechanisms responsible for bat success in transformed landscapes, other aspects associated with habitat specialization, foraging behavior, food acquisition, and nutrient intake might play a crucial role in their adaptive capability (Jara-Servín et al, 2016;Saldaña-Vázquez, Ruiz-Sanchez, Herrera-Alsina, & Schondube, 2015;Welch & Beaulieu, 2018).…”

“…Endemism is one of the main factors predicting the risk of extinction in bats, that is associated with habitat specialist species (Welch & Beaulieu, 2018). Besides landscape composition and structure, other factors such as primary productivity may influence bat traits related to vagility and food intake (Kelly, Friedman, & Santana, 2018).…”

Developing global vulnerabilities and conservation priorities for cave-dwelling bats

“…Patterns of cave bat richness and endemism are parallel with the global bat patterns, peaking in the tropics and particularly in the Indomalayan, Afrotropical, southern Palearctic, and Neotropical regions 22,32 . Although we suspect these estimates of diversity and proportion of threatened species are underestimated values because of the current taxonomic gaps, large numbers of undescribed cryptic species and lack of accurate species distributions assessments for global bats [40][41][42] . We observed a higher risk of extinction in species with a narrow geographical range distribution (e.g island and nationally endemic species), consistent with other studies 40,43 .…”

“…Although we suspect these estimates of diversity and proportion of threatened species are underestimated values because of the current taxonomic gaps, large numbers of undescribed cryptic species and lack of accurate species distributions assessments for global bats [40][41][42] . We observed a higher risk of extinction in species with a narrow geographical range distribution (e.g island and nationally endemic species), consistent with other studies 40,43 . Except for the association of endemism to extinction risk varies phylogenetically showing that closely related species have a similar association 43 , island and geopolitical endemism is respectively correlated to sub-orders Yangochiroptera and Yinpterochiroptera.…”

More Urbanization, Fewer Bats: The Importance of Forest Conservation in Honduras

“…In general, phyllostomids have an early activity peak and then declining activity through the night [57]. Habitat specialization, nutrient intake, and food procurement are features that are associated with bat success in transformed landscapes [55,58].…”