Predicting drinking onset with discrete-time survival analysis in offspring from the San Diego prospective study

Abstract

Previous research has shown that an early onset of drinking is associated with a range of problematic drinking outcomes in adulthood. However, earlier drinking is also linked to additional characteristics that themselves predict alcohol problems including male gender, a family history (FH) of alcoholism, age, race, parental alcoholism, depression symptoms, prior drug use, and conduct problems. This study tested the relationship between the age of first drink (AFD) and a range of risk factors that predict the onset of alcohol use. Participants were offspring from the San Diego Prospective Study (SDPS) who were at least 15 years old at the time of their most recent interview (n=147). Discretetime survival analysis (DTSA) was used to relate multiple characteristics to the hazard function of alcohol onset across a relevant age range. The results demonstrated the predicted relationships to AFD for conduct problems, male gender, prior marijuana use, and a FH of alcoholism, even when these characteristics were estimated together. Furthermore, an interaction occurred such that offspring with both conduct problems and marijuana use were at substantially higher risk for alcohol use onset during this time period than would be predicted from the effect of these two risk factors alone. However, age at interview, ethnicity, parent education, and depressive symptoms did not predict the pattern of onset of drinking. Implications for future research and prevention efforts are discussed.

Do Premorbid Predictors of Alcohol Dependence Also Predict the Failure to Recover From Alcoholism?

“…N THE LAST 60 YEARS, prospective longitudinal studies have attempted to identify the premorbid antecedents of the alcohol-use disorders, especially alcohol dependence, by examining subjects before drinking problems began and following them into adulthood (Goodwin et al, 1994;Hill et al, 2000;Knop et al, 2003;Trim et al, 2010;Vaillant, 1995Vaillant, , 2003Zucker, 2006). The number of premorbid research domains that have been investigated is quite large and range from genetic, family history, and developmental domains through personality, social, and behavioral domains, to cultural and social context domains.…”

Exploring the link between depression and accelerated cellular aging: telomeres hold the key

“…Psychological stress, the most significant predictor of depression 80 and unhealthy lifestyle behaviors that are more common among the depressed, including smoking, 81 alcohol intake, 82 unhealthy diet, 83 physical inactivity, 84 and poor sleeping quality 85 have been implicated in contributing to alterations in the biochemical mediators as discussed in the previous section, resulting in telomere shortening and cellular aging (Figure 1). …”

Temperament disturbances measured in infancy progress to substance use disorder 20years later

“…Biological children of SUD parents have up to sevenfold heightened risk to develop SUD (Johnson & Leff, 1999; Tarter, Horner, & Ridenour, 2012). Compared to children whose parents do not have SUD, offspring of SUD parents initiate substance use at a younger age (Hill, Shen, Lowers, & Locke, 2000) and more rapidly progress to SUD (Trim, Schuckit, & Smith, 2010; Warner, White, & Johnson, 2007). Notably, the transmissible component of risk encompassing both genetic and parental environment influences accounts for over 40% of variance underlying cannabis dependence (Hopfer et al, 2003).…”