Predicting distribution of<i>Aedes aegypti</i>and<i>Culex pipiens</i>complex, potential vectors of Rift Valley fever virus in relation to disease epidemics in East Africa

Mweya, Clement N.; Kimera, Sharadhuli I.; Kija, John Bukombe; Mboera, Leonard E. G.

doi:10.3402/iee.v3i0.21748

Cited by 46 publications

(46 citation statements)

References 36 publications

(43 reference statements)

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“…Relatively high levels of change in EIR at baseline also occur to the west of Lake Victoria, in western Uganda and into Rwanda and Burundi. The baseline distribution is thus similar to that predicted for Culex pipiens complex, closely linked with explosive RVF outbreaks in endemic areas (Mweya , 2015), on the basis of a statistical model (Mweya et al, 2013), and provides further evidence that the hazard of RVF outbreaks in eastern Africa extends beyond current epizootic limits. Projected EIR remains relatively stable to 2050 when compared with baseline, even declining in central/eastern Uganda (RCP4.5), before increasing by century end.…”

Section: Resultssupporting

confidence: 77%

Environmental change and Rift Valley fever in eastern Africa: projecting beyond HEALTHY FUTURES

et al. 2016

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Outbreaks of Rift Valley fever (RVF), a relatively recently emerged zoonosis endemic to large parts of sub-Saharan Africa that has the potential to spread beyond the continent, have profound health and socio-economic impacts, particularly in communities where resilience is already low. Here output from a new, dynamic disease model [the Liverpool RVF (LRVF) model], driven by downscaled, bias-corrected climate change data from an ensemble of global circulation models from the Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project run according to two radiative forcing scenarios [representative concentration pathway (RCP)4.5 and RCP8.5], is combined with results of a spatial assessment of social vulnerability to the disease in eastern Africa. The combined approach allowed for analyses of spatial and temporal variations in the risk of RVF to the end of the current century. Results for both scenarios highlight the high-risk of future RVF outbreaks, including in parts of eastern Africa to date unaffected by the disease. The results also highlight the risk of spread from/to countries adjacent to the study area, and possibly farther afield, and the value of considering the geography of future projections of disease risk. Based on the results, there is a clear need to remain vigilant and to invest not only in surveillance and early warning systems, but also in addressing the socio-economic factors that underpin social vulnerability in order to mitigate, effectively, future impacts.

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Section: Resultssupporting

confidence: 77%

Environmental change and Rift Valley fever in eastern Africa: projecting beyond HEALTHY FUTURES

et al. 2016

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“…Aedes aegypti and Aedes albopictus have received a great deal of attention worldwide, since both species are efficient vectors for human arboviral diseases such as Zika (Thangamani et al, 2016; Marchette et al, 1969; Gardner et al, 2016; Marcondes and de FF de Ximenes, 2016), dengue (Jansen and Beebe, 2010; Rosen et al, 1983), chikungunya (Paupy et al, 2010; Burt et al, 2012), and yellow fever (Aitken et al, 1979) A. aegypti is also a vector for zoonotic diseases such as Rift Valley fever (RVF) (Mweya et al, 2013), which is considered to be one of the more serious emerging zoonotic diseases (Pepin et al, 2010). …”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Global risk mapping for major diseases transmitted by Aedes aegypti and Aedes albopictus

Leta

Beyene

Clercq

et al. 2018

International Journal of Infectious Diseases

370

253

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Objectives The objective of this study was to map the global risk of the major arboviral diseases transmitted by Aedes aegypti and Aedes albopictus by identifying areas where the diseases are reported, either through active transmission or travel-related outbreaks, as well as areas where the diseases are not currently reported but are nonetheless suitable for the vector. Methods Data relating to five arboviral diseases (Zika, dengue fever, chikungunya, yellow fever, and Rift Valley fever (RVF)) were extracted from some of the largest contemporary databases and paired with data on the known distribution of their vectors, A. aegypti and A. albopictus. The disease occurrence data for the selected diseases were compiled from literature dating as far back as 1952 to as recent as 2017. The resulting datasets were aggregated at the country level, except in the case of the USA, where state-level data were used. Spatial analysis was used to process the data and to develop risk maps. Results Out of the 250 countries/territories considered, 215 (86%) are potentially suitable for the survival and establishment of A. aegypti and/or A. albopictus. A. albopictus has suitability foci in 197 countries/territories, while there are 188 that are suitable for A. aegypti. There is considerable variation in the suitability range among countries/territories, but many of the tropical regions of the world provide high suitability over extensive areas. Globally, 146 (58.4%) countries/territories reported at least one arboviral disease, while 123 (49.2%) reported more than one of the above diseases. The overall numbers of countries/territories reporting autochthonous vector-borne occurrences of Zika, dengue, chikungunya, yellow fever, and RVF, were 85, 111, 106, 43, and 39, respectively. Conclusions With 215 countries/territories potentially suitable for the most important arboviral disease vectors and more than half of these reporting cases, arboviral diseases are indeed a global public health threat. The increasing proportion of reports that include multiple arboviral diseases highlights the expanding range of their common transmission vectors. The shared features of these arboviral diseases should motivate efforts to combine interventions against these diseases.

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“…pipiens as potential vectors of Rift Valley fever. It revealed essential knowledge for planning and rolling out disease control strategies and discovering previously unknown risk areas (101). Once such niche models are available, they can be run in parallel with climate-change scenarios, to assess the impact of climate change on the geographic range of the species and the associated health risk.…”

Section: Modelling Vector Range and The Impact Of Climate Changementioning

confidence: 99%

Mosquitoes and Culicoides biting midges: vector range and the influence of climate change

Elbers¹,

Koenraadt²,

Meiswinkel³

2015

Rev. Sci. Tech. OIE

110

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SummaryVector-borne animal diseases pose a continuous and substantial threat to livestock economies around the globe. Increasing international travel, the globalisation of trade, and climate change are likely to play a progressively more important role in the introduction, establishment and spread of arthropod-borne pathogens worldwide. A review of the literature reveals that many climatic variables, functioning singly or in combination, exert varying effects on the distribution and range of Culicoides vector midges and mosquitoes. For example, higher temperatures may be associated with increased insect abundancethereby amplifying the risk of disease transmission -but there are no indications yet of dramatic shifts occurring in the geographic range of Culicoides midges. However, the same cannot be said for mosquitoes: over the last few decades, multiple Asian species have established themselves in Europe, spread and are unlikely to ever be eradicated. Research on how insects respond to changes in climate is still in its infancy. The authors argue that we need to grasp how other annectant changes, such as extremes in precipitation (drought and flooding), may affect the dispersal capability of mosquitoes. Models are useful for assessing the interplay between mosquito vectors expanding their range and the native flora and fauna; however, ecological studies employing classical mark-release-recapture techniques remain essential for addressing fundamental questions about the survival and dispersal of mosquito species, with the resulting parameters fed directly into new-generation disease transmission models. Studies on the eventual impact of mosquitoes on animal and human health should be tackled through large-scale integrated research programmes. Such an approach calls for more collaborative efforts, along the lines of the One Health Initiative.

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Predicting distribution ofAedes aegyptiandCulex pipienscomplex, potential vectors of Rift Valley fever virus in relation to disease epidemics in East Africa

Cited by 46 publications

References 36 publications

Environmental change and Rift Valley fever in eastern Africa: projecting beyond HEALTHY FUTURES

Environmental change and Rift Valley fever in eastern Africa: projecting beyond HEALTHY FUTURES

Global risk mapping for major diseases transmitted by Aedes aegypti and Aedes albopictus

Mosquitoes and Culicoides biting midges: vector range and the influence of climate change

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