PURPOSE A risk prediction index, similar to those used for other disorders, such as cardiovascular disease, would facilitate depression prevention by identifying those who would benefi t most from preventative measures in primary care settings.
METHODSThe National Longitudinal Study of Adolescent Health enrolled a representative sample of US adolescents and included a baseline survey in 1995 and a 1-year follow-up survey in 1996 (n = 4,791). We used baseline risk factors (social and cognitive vulnerability and mood) to predict onset of a depressive episode at 1-year follow-up (eg, future risk of episode) and used boosted classifi cation and regression trees to develop a prediction index, The Chicago Adolescent Depression Risk Assessment, suitable for a personal computer or hand-held device. True and false positives and negatives were determined based on concordance and discordance, respectively, between the prediction-category-based index and actual classifi cation-category-based 1-year follow-up outcome. We evaluated the performance of the index for the entire sample and with several depressive episode outcomes using the standard Center for Epidemiologic Studies Depression (CES-D) scale cutoffs.RESULTS The optimal prediction model (including depressed mood and social vulnerability) was a 20-item model with an area under the receiver operating characteristics curve of 0.80 (95% CI, 0.714-0.870), a sensitivity of 75%, and a specifi city of 76.5%. For depressive episode, the positive predictive values in the highest risk group (level 4) was from 13.75% for a depressive episode to 63.57% for CES-D score of greater than 16 (mild to moderate depressed mood or above) at follow-up. Conversely, the negative predictive value of being in the lowest 2 levels (0 or 1) was 99.38% for a depressive episode and 89.19% for a CES-D score of greater than 16.CONCLUSIONS Our model predicts a depressive episode and other depressive outcomes at 1-year follow-up. Positive and negative predictive values could enable primary care physicians and families to intervene on adolescents at highest risk.