Predicting Culex pipiens/restuans population dynamics by interval lagged weather data

Abstract

BackgroundCulex pipiens/restuans mosquitoes are important vectors for a variety of arthropod borne viral infections. In this study, the associations between 20 years of mosquito capture data and the time lagged environmental quantities daytime length, temperature, precipitation, relative humidity and wind speed were used to generate a predictive model for the population dynamics of this vector species.MethodsMosquito population in the study area was represented by averaged time series of mosquitos counts captured at 6 sites in Cook County (Illinois, USA). Cross-correlation maps (CCMs) were compiled to investigate the association between mosquito abundances and environmental quantities. The results obtained from the CCMs were incorporated into a Poisson regression to generate a predictive model. To optimize the predictive model the time lags obtained from the CCMs were adjusted using a genetic algorithm.ResultsCCMs for weekly data showed a highly positive correlation of mosquito abundances with daytime length 4 to 5 weeks prior to capture (quantified by a Spearman rank order correlation of rS = 0.898) and with temperature during 2 weeks prior to capture (rS = 0.870). Maximal negative correlations were found for wind speed averaged over 3 week prior to capture (rS = −0.621). Cx. pipiens/restuans population dynamics was predicted by integrating the CCM results in Poisson regression models. They were used to simulate the average seasonal cycle of the mosquito abundance. Verification with observations resulted in a correlation of rS = 0.899 for daily and rS = 0.917 for weekly data. Applying the optimized models to the entire 20-years time series also resulted in a suitable fit with rS = 0.876 for daily and rS = 0.899 for weekly data.ConclusionsThe study demonstrates the application of interval lagged weather data to predict mosquito abundances with a feasible accuracy, especially when related to weekly Cx. pipiens/restuans populations.

The mosquito fauna of the western region of Spain with emphasis on ecological factors and the characterization ofCulex pipiensforms

“…(Carrieri et al ), and in this area of study we observed an inversely proportional relationship with temperature. The importance of precipitation is indicated by many authors (Becker et al , Lebl et al ), noting that more days of rainfall at the beginning and end of the year will lead to increased formation and persistence of larval mosquito habitats and mosquito populations remaining steady during the year (Rosà et al ). This factor may adversely affect the development of mosquitoes according to the intensity of precipitation and type of larval habitat (Carrieri et al ).…”

Synthetic predator cues impair immune function and make the biological pesticide Bti more lethal for vector mosquitoes

“…), while the mean lifespan of adult Culex under summer field conditions in the absence of predation risk is only ~7 d (Lebl et al. ).…”

Weather Factors Influencing the Population Dynamics ofCulex pipiens(Diptera: Culicidae) in the Po Plain Valley, Italy (1997-2011)

“…Block ANOVA was used to compare the mosquito population densities of urban and rural areas. We applied the same data transformation used in previous approaches (Lebl et al 2013), and mosquito counts were standardized to females per trap per month, and these standardized counts were transformed by log(yϩ1) to normalize the data and control the variance. We adopted the SpearmanÕs rank correlation, which is insensitive to transformation using monotonic functions.…”