Predicting cocaine consumption in Spain: A mathematical modelling approach

Sánchez, Emilio; Micó, Rafael Jacinto Villanueva; Santonja, Francisco-José; Rubio, María Milagros del Saz

doi:10.3109/09687630903443299

Cited by 25 publications

(30 citation statements)

References 21 publications

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“…A similar study has been done for adult Valencian population in [11]. However, to our knowledge, simulations of the effect of policy strategies on dynamic models only appears in [12] for cocaine abuse.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Analysing the effect of public health campaigns on reducing excess weight: A modelling approach for the Spanish Autonomous Region of the Community of Valencia

Santonja

Morales

Micó

et al. 2012

Evaluation and Program Planning

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Excess Weight is becoming a serious health concern that is increasing in developed and developing countries. Public health authorities are worried about it and develop health communication campaigns to inform the population the health problems that may be derived from excess weight and change their nutritional behaviour. Recent studies determine that the average health campaign affects the intervention community by about 5%. The aim of this paper is to quantify the effect of different health campaigns on the population over the next few years changing the dietary behaviour and, consequently, reducing the weight of a significant number of people. This study is based on recent works that consider excess weight as a consequence of the transmission of unhealthy lifestyles from one individual to another. Under this point of view a model is presented and policies based on communication health campaigns addressed to avoid people gaining weight (prevention) and policies addressed to excess weight individuals for reducing their weight (treatment) are simulated in order to evaluate their effectiveness. The study concludes that preventive strategies are more effective than the treatment ones.

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Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Analysing the effect of public health campaigns on reducing excess weight: A modelling approach for the Spanish Autonomous Region of the Community of Valencia

Santonja

Morales

Micó

et al. 2012

Evaluation and Program Planning

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“…This kind of model has also been used for the spread of social habits, such as the smoking habit [1], cocaine consumption [2], alcohol consumption [3] or obesity epidemics [4].…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Solving a model for the evolution of smoking habit in Spain with homotopy analysis method

Guerrero

Santonja

Micó

2013

Nonlinear Analysis: Real World Applications

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This article appeared in a journal published by Elsevier. The attached copy is furnished to the author for internal non-commercial research and education use, including for instruction at the authors institution and sharing with colleagues.Other uses, including reproduction and distribution, or selling or licensing copies, or posting to personal, institutional or third party websites are prohibited. a b s t r a c tWe obtain an approximated analytical solution for a dynamic model for the prevalence of the smoking habit in a constant population but with equal and different from zero birth and death rates. This model has been successfully used to explain the evolution of the smoking habit in Spain. By means of the Homotopy Analysis Method, we obtain an analytic expression in powers of time t which reproduces the correct solution for a certain range of time. To enlarge the domain of convergence we have applied the so-called optimal convergence-control parameter technique and the homotopy-Padé technique. We present and discuss graphical results for our solutions.

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“…En este sentido se ha llegado a plantear en estudios recientes la hipótesis del "contagio social" entre consumidores y no consumidores (Sánchez-Hervás, Villanueva, Santonja, y Rubio, 2011;Santonja, Lombana, Rubio, Sánchez-Hervás y Villanueva, 2010).…”

Section: Perspectivas De Futurounclassified

Recaídas en la adicción a cocaína: una revisión

Sánchez-Hervás

Pozo

2012

Adicciones

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. Many and varied factors and variables identified with some predictive power were identified, notably psychosocial problems, negative emotional states, anxiety, self-efficacy, psychopathological comorbidity, addictive severity, and several variables related to the treatment process. Knowledge about the relapse process has increased considerably in recent years, but although the influence of certain factors on relapse in cocaine use now seems clear, specific research is still s carce and inconclusive.Key words: cocaine, relapse, review, treatment results.Las recaídas siguen siendo un problema común en los trastornos relacionados con el consumo de cocaína. El objetivo de este trabajo es el de revisar los últimos datos de la investigación sobre las variables y factores relacionados con las recaídas en el consumo en personas dependientes a la cocaína. Se realizó una búsqueda electrónica de trabajos que incluyeran el estudio de variables relacionadas con la recaída en el consumo de cocaína, en algunas de las bases de datos nacionales e internacionales más importantes en la actualidad: PubMed, ISI Web of Knowledge, The Cochrane Library, IME e ISOC. Para localizar los últimos datos de investigación la búsqueda se realizó para estudios publicados en el período comprendido entre Enero de 2000 a Julio de 2011. Han sido varios y variados los factores y variables identificadas con cierto poder predictivo, entre los que destacan la problemática psicosocial, los estados emocionales negativos, la ansiedad, la autoeficacia, la comorbilidad psicopatológica, la severidad adictiva, y varias variables relacionadas con el proceso de tratamiento. Los conocimientos sobre los procesos de recaída se han incrementado considerablemente en los últimos años, y aunque la influencia de algunos factores sobre las recaídas en el consumo de cocaína parece clara, la investigación específica es todavía escasa y no concluyente.Palabras clave: cocaína, recaídas, revisión, resultados de tratamiento. Recaídas en la adicción a cocaína: una revisión Relapse in cocaine addiction: a review

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Predicting cocaine consumption in Spain: A mathematical modelling approach

Cited by 25 publications

References 21 publications

Analysing the effect of public health campaigns on reducing excess weight: A modelling approach for the Spanish Autonomous Region of the Community of Valencia

Analysing the effect of public health campaigns on reducing excess weight: A modelling approach for the Spanish Autonomous Region of the Community of Valencia

Solving a model for the evolution of smoking habit in Spain with homotopy analysis method

Recaídas en la adicción a cocaína: una revisión

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