Predicting climate-driven distribution shifts in Hyalomma marginatum (Ixodidae)

Abstract

Hyalomma marginatum is an important tick species which is the main vector of Crimean–Congo haemorrhagic fever and spotted fever. The species is predominantly distributed in parts of southern Europe, North Africa and West Asia. However, due to ongoing climate change and increasing reports of H. marginatum in central and northern Europe, the expansion of this range poses a potential future risk. In this study, an ecological niche modelling approach to model the current and future climatic suitability of H. marginatum was followed. Using high-resolution climatic variables from the Chelsa dataset and an updated list of locations for H. marginatum, ecological niche models were constructed under current environmental conditions using MaxEnt for both current conditions and future projections under the ssp370 and ssp585 scenarios. Models show that the climatically suitable region for H. marginatum matches the current distributional area in the Mediterranean basin and West Asia. When applied to future projections, the models suggest a considerable expansion of H. marginatum's range in the north in Europe as a result of rising temperatures. However, a decline in central Anatolia is also predicted, potentially due to the exacerbation of drought conditions in that region.

Perception of Ticks and Tick-Borne Diseases Worldwide

“…Predicting the distribution of H. marginatum (the presumed main vector) is of great importance for identifying future health risks. Recent studies suggested that H. marginatum will remain in areas where it is currently distributed and will also expand to new areas where it has not been reported before [224]. Likewise, the progress of tick-borne encephalitis and Lyme borreliosis should be carefully monitored, as these diseases are not currently reported in Turkey but constitute a potential threat due to the presence of their tick vector.…”