Predicting Breaststroke and Butterfly Stroke Results in Swimming Based on Olympics History

Abstract

Here we describe historic variations in Olympic breaststroke and butterfly performance and predict swimming results for the 2021 Olympic Games in Tokyo. The results of the finalists, winners, and last participants in the women’s and men’s finals were analyzed, and a mathematical predictive model was created. The predicted times for the future Olympics were presented. Swimming performance among Olympians has been steadily improving, with record times of 18.51 s for female finalists in the 100 m butterfly (a 24.63% improvement) and 31.33 s for male finalists in the 200 m butterfly (21.44%). The results in all analyzed groups showed improvement in athletic performance, and the gap between the finalists has narrowed. Women Olympians’ performances have improved faster than men’s, reducing the gap between genders. We conclude that swimming performance among Olympians is continuing to improve.

Prediction and Analysis of Tokyo Olympic Games Swimming Results: Impact of the COVID-19 Pandemic on Swimmers’ Performance

“…To test the hypothesis that Tokyo Olympics swimmers’ performances were close to those predicted, Tokyo performances were compared to the Rio’s results for all swimming strokes, to the times estimated in the present study for Freestyle and Backstroke and to the times estimated in the study by Holub and colleagues for Breaststroke and Butterfly [ 1 ]. The differences between Tokyo 2020, Rio 2016 and predicted results were evaluated by a univariate analysis of variance.…”

“…Periodization training is considered one of the main issues for coaches and athletes, it underlies the process of athlete preparation and is fundamental for setting realistic performance goals in the plan for major competition [ 1 , 2 ]. Traditional swimmer’s training is characterized by detailed annual plans that comprises performance peeks for at least three competitive events each year.…”

“…Conducting studies to predict future sports results can be helpful for developing appropriate training plans and strategies. Observing results from previous years and monitoring the progress and trends in swimming along time makes it possible to estimate and forecast future results and allows to predict the direction in which this discipline is heading [ 1 ]. Regarding this, performance analysis, as the investigation of races in competitions, provides an essential role to support the development of athletes from a scientific perspective [ 8 ].…”

“…As a result of different chances for training and conflicting athletes’ reactions to the Games postponement and to the closed-door competitions, if the Tokyo Olympics performance outcome of swimmers was hampered by the pandemic emergency is still unknown [ 1 ]. Therefore, the question arises, whether this extra-year in the roadmap toward the Tokyo Olympic Games represented an actual opportunity for swimmers to successfully regain the performance lost in the 2019–2020 season, or if otherwise their performance was hindered by training restriction, lack of competitions, Olympic postponement, and the absence of spectators.…”

Erratum: Hołub et al. Predicting Breaststroke and Butterfly Stroke Results in Swimming Based on Olympics History. Int. J. Environ. Res. Public Health 2021, 18, 6621

“…In the original article [1], there was a mistake in "the table footer of Table 1. Summary of univariate linear regression for the results of the first and eighth place in the finals and the average time of the women's and men's finalists in the 100-m and 200-m breaststroke and butterfly stroke along with a prediction of times for the Tokyo Olympic Games in 2021."…”