Predicting 1-year mortality after hospitalization for community-acquired pneumonia

Abstract

BackgroundCommunity-acquired pneumonia (CAP) is a major public health problem with high short- and long-term mortality. The main aim of this study was to develop and validate a specific prognostic index for one-year mortality in patients admitted for CAP.MethodsThis was an observational, prospective study of adults aged ≥18 years admitted to Galdakao-Usansolo Hospital (Bizkaia, Spain) from January 2001 to July 2009 with a diagnosis of CAP surviving the first 15 days. The entire cohort was divided into two parts, in order to develop a one-year mortality predictive model in the derivation cohort, before validation using the second cohort.ResultsA total of 2351 patients were included and divided into a derivation and a validation cohort. After deaths within 15 days were excluded, one-year mortality was 10.63%. A predictive model was created in order to predict one-year mortality, with a weighted score that included: aged over 80 years (4 points), congestive heart failure (2 points), dementia (6 points), respiratory rate ≥30 breaths per minute (2 points) and blood urea nitrogen >30 mg/dL (3 points) as predictors of higher risk with C-index of 0.76. This new model showed better predictive ability than current risk scores, PSI, CURB65 and SCAP with C-index of 0.73, 0.69 and 0.70, respectively.ConclusionsAn easy-to-use score, called the one-year CAPSI, may be useful for identifying patients with a high probability of dying after an episode of CAP.

Clinical Features Predicting Mortality Risk in Patients With Viral Pneumonia: The MuLBSTA Score

“…Pneumonia is a global cause of death with high short-term and long-term mortality. Though short-term mortality rates are high in this acute disease, long-term mortality within 90 days, 1 year and 5 years are also noteworthy in previous studies (Mortensen et al, 2003; Uranga et al, 2018). Nowadays, the survival time for patients with severe lung failure with the progress of radiological image, new drugs and supporting techniques like extracorporeal membrane oxygenation (ECMO) (Pappalardo et al, 2013).…”

“…Although a variety of clinical prediction rules for pneumonia such as CRB-65 and CURB-65 are widely used in the assessment of community acquired pneumonia (CAP) (Viasus et al, 2016; Uranga et al, 2018), most remain not applicable in the setting of viral infection. Other reported risk factors for influenza pneumonia such as PO2/FiO2, lymphocyte count, and antigen-specific T cells are likewise useful in predicting mortality and deciding on appropriate management (Viasus et al, 2011; Shi et al, 2017).…”

A biomarker-based age, biomarkers, clinical history, sex (ABCS)-mortality risk score for patients with coronavirus disease 2019

“…Clinical and biomarker variables associated with death were assessed a-priori based on scientific knowledge, clinical importance, and risk factors identified in previously published articles (6,12,15,16,(22)(23)(24)(25). The significance of each variable in the derivation cohort was evaluated by univariate Cox regression analysis.…”

Risk stratification scores for hospitalization duration and disease progression in moderate and severe patients with COVID-19

“…The weighted point (λ) of each factor was simplified by the integer form of the quotient of one factor's regression coefficient and the lowest regression coefficient in the model as shown in Fig. 2 (e.g., number of symptoms > 3 got one point because the quotient of its regression coefficient and LDH's regression coefficient equal to 1.29) [ 11 ], and total points were calculated by summing these weighted points.

Fig.

…”