Predicted range shifts of alien tree species in Europe

Puchałka, Radosław; Paź-Dyderska, Sonia; Jagodziński, Andrzej M.; Sádlo, Jiřı́; Vítková, Michaela; Klisz, Marcin; Koniakin, Serhii; Prokopuk, Yulia; Netsvetov, Maksym; Nicolescu, Valeriu‐Norocel; Zlatanov, Tzvetan; Mionskowski, Marcin; Dyderski, Marcin K.

doi:10.1016/j.agrformet.2023.109650

Cited by 19 publications

(7 citation statements)

References 121 publications

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“…It may lower some barriers to naturalization and invasion of exotic trees, including pine species (Richardson and Rejmánek 2004). On the contrary, changes in the precipitation regime and more frequent heat waves will likely mean that environmental niches of many conifers will shift northwards and northeastwards and be reduced: for example, the ranges of Abies grandis and Larix kaempferi in Europe are expected to decrease by 52 and 60 % respectively by 2070 (Thurm et al 2018, Puchałka et al 2023. Dyderski et al (2018) labeled conifer species as "losers" in the future climate scenarios in Europe, because of the lack of available suitable areas at northern latitudes.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Fast height growth is key to non-native conifers invasiveness in temperate forests

Fanal,

Porté,

Mahy

et al. 2023

Biol Invasions

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Many exotic conifer species have been introduced for wood production in temperate regions. Some of these species can display an invasive behavior and negatively impact native ecosystems. It is therefore crucial to identify potentially invasive species before they are widely planted. Seedling high Relative Growth Rate (RGR) and Specific Leaf Area (SLA) have been associated with enhanced invasiveness of trees in previous studies. However, it has been mainly demonstrated for light-demanding species in disturbed habitats, less for shade-tolerant species in closed forests. Here, we investigated the link between seedlings growth traits of 15 exotic conifer species and invasiveness considered at both global and local scale. Seedlings were grown outdoor, under a shade net, and harvested after 4 and 10 weeks.RGR, SLA, Shoot-Root ratio, Shoot Relative Growth Rate (SRGR), Relative Height Growth Rate (RHGR) and Relative Needles Production Rate (RNPR) were measured. We developed a continuous approach to position each species along a gradient of invasiveness. Local invasiveness consists of a value based on regeneration densities and dispersal distances observed in forest arboreta in Southern Belgium, and is therefore related to the ability of species to invade closed forest ecosystems. Global invasiveness was calculated based on the GBIF Database and the Global Compendium of Weeds, and encompasses all potentially invaded habitats. It appeared that RHGR was positively related to both local and global invasiveness, while SLA was positively related to local invasiveness only. However, RGR was not significantly related with local nor global invasiveness. This study indicates that preferential investment in rapid vertical growth associated with fast resource acquisition is a strategy enhancing invasiveness of non-native conifers, also in closed, shaded temperate forests.

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Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Fast height growth is key to non-native conifers invasiveness in temperate forests

Fanal,

Porté,

Mahy

et al. 2023

Biol Invasions

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“…The invasive process can often progress under the influence of climate change. According to predictions based on bioclimatic variables, many indigenous tree species are expected to be replaced by non-indigenous species in Europe in the next 60 years [108]. This shift may entail changes in the soil and microclimate; for this reason, the impact of invasive plant species replacing native ones on fauna deserves additional research.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Modeling Current and Future Distribution of Cochlodina laminata in Eastern Europe under Climate Change

Adamova,

Ukrainskiy

2023

Diversity

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In this study, we focused on the eastern part of the Cochlodina laminata range. Although this door snail is widespread in Europe, even a widespread species may lose habitats if future climate change projections are realized. The range shift is one of the consequences of climate change. We applied SDM methods to model the current potential range of C. laminata and the range shift after 40 and after 80 years. We used climatic parameters as predictors. The annual mean temperature has the greatest impact on the modeling results (about 30–60% among models). The precipitation of the warmest quarter also had a high relative importance (about 15–40% among models). For future projections, we considered two shared socio-economic pathways (ssp245 and ssp585). We applied three algorithms: the generalized additive model (GAM), support vector machine (SVM) and multilayer perceptron (MLP) and ensemble prediction. Our projections showed a decrease in habitable area in the eastern part of the range of C. laminata in 40 and in 80 years. According to the forecast, the habitat suitable area will become more fragmented. The range shift with new suitable areas is expected toward the east direction.

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“…5 × 5 km) cell size covering the entire land surface within the study area was adopted, and one occurrence record closest to each grid's center was kept while the remaining points were deleted. This grid size is suitable for continental-scale models and has been used in recent studies dealing with plant species (e.g., Xie et al, 2022;Puchałka et al, 2023a). Obtaining more uniform density of distribution points was essentially needed for some widespread species with high occurrence density concentrated in more densely populated regions (i.e., Central and Western Europe), which could influence the results by multiplying the weight of spatially clustered observations.…”

Section: Species Occurrence Recordsmentioning

confidence: 99%

More losses than gains? Distribution models predict species-specific shifts in climatic suitability for European beech forest herbs under climate change

Kermavnar,

Kutnar,

Marinšek

2023

Front. For. Glob. Change

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IntroductionHerbaceous plant species constitute an essential element of the flora of European beech (Fagus sylvatica) forests. There is increasing evidence that rapidly changing climate is likely to modify the spatial distribution of plant species. However, we lack understanding of the impact that climate change might have on beech forest herbs across the European continent. We investigated the possible effects of predicted increasing rates of global warming and altered precipitation regimes on 71 forest herbs closely associated with beech forests, but with varying biogeographic and climatic niche attributes.MethodsBy using a total of 394,502 occurrence records and an ensemble of species distribution models (SDMs), we quantified the potential current distribution and future (2061-2080) range shifts in climatic suitability (expressed as occurrence probability, OP) according to two climate change scenarios (moderate SSP2-4.5 and severe SSP5-8.5).ResultsOverall, precipitation of the warmest quarter and temperature seasonality were the most influential predictors in shaping current distribution patterns. For SSP5-8.5 scenario, all studied species experienced significant reductions (52.9% on average) in the total size of highly suitable areas (OP >0.75). However, the magnitude and directions of changes in the climatic suitability were highly species-specific; few species might even increase OP in the future, particularly in case of SSP2-4.5 scenario. The SDMs revealed the most substantial decline of climatic suitability at the trailing edges in southern Europe. We found that climatic suitability is predicted to show unidirectional northward shift and to move toward higher elevations. The gain/loss ratio was generally higher for narrow-ranged species compared to widespread taxa.DiscussionOur findings are contextualized with regards to potential confounding factors (dispersal limitation, microclimatic buffering) that may mitigate or accelerate climate change impacts. Given the low long-distance migration ability, many beech forest herbs are unlikely to track the velocity with which macroclimatic isotherms are moving toward higher latitudes, making this species group particularly vulnerable to climate change.

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Predicted range shifts of alien tree species in Europe

Cited by 19 publications

References 121 publications

Fast height growth is key to non-native conifers invasiveness in temperate forests

Fast height growth is key to non-native conifers invasiveness in temperate forests

Modeling Current and Future Distribution of Cochlodina laminata in Eastern Europe under Climate Change

More losses than gains? Distribution models predict species-specific shifts in climatic suitability for European beech forest herbs under climate change

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