Predicted habitat shifts of Pacific top predators in a changing climate

Abstract

To manage marine ecosystems proactively, it is important to identify species at risk and habitats critical for conservation. Climate change scenarios have predicted an average sea surface temperature (SST) rise of 1-6• C by 2100 (refs 1, 2), which could affect the distribution and habitat of many marine species. Here we examine top predator distribution and diversity in the light of climate change using a database of 4,300 electronic tags deployed on 23 marine species from the Tagging of Pacific Predators project, and output from a global climate model to 2100. On the basis of models of observed species distribution as a function of SST, chlorophyll a and bathymetry, we project changes in species-specific core habitat and basin-scale patterns of biodiversity. We predict up to a 35% change in core habitat for some species, significant differences in rates and patterns of habitat change across guilds, and a substantial northward displacement of biodiversity across the North Pacific. For already stressed species, increased migration times and loss of pelagic habitat could exacerbate population declines or inhibit recovery. The impending effects of climate change stress the urgency of adaptively managing ecosystems facing multiple threats.

Key Questions in Marine Megafauna Movement Ecology

“…Similarly, the rapid loss of Arctic sea ice might affect the movement patterns of Arctic megafauna, restricting those of animals, such as the polar bear and the walrus using sea ice as a platform, and enhancing ones whose access to the Arctic had been precluded by sea ice. The complexities of the drivers of animal movements make predictions of climate change impacts difficult [51].…”

Projecting Marine Mammal Distribution in a Changing Climate

“…Integration of long time series and modeling studies have demonstrated climate change-associated distributional changes in numerous marine fish and invertebrate populations (e.g., Perry et al, 2005;Nye et al, 2009;Pinsky et al, 2013;Poloczanska et al, 2013;Walsh et al, 2015), including commercially important North Atlantic Ocean species in multi-billion dollar fishing industries (NMFS, 2016). Additional shifts in these taxa, as well as the potential for accelerated rates of change, are expected as warming continues (Hazen et al, 2013;Lynch et al, 2015;Hare et al, 2016).…”

“…Substantive shifts in the distribution of marine mammals and other large marine vertebrates have been predicted (e.g., IWC, 2010;Gilles et al, 2011;Becker et al, 2012;Hezel et al, 2012;Keller et al, 2012;Gregr et al, 2013;Hazen et al, 2013;Mannocci et al, 2014). As such shifts occur in novel environments expected under climate change, protective measures for marine mammals will need to be adapted.…”

Climate Change: Warming Impacts on Marine Biodiversity

“…Also in marine organisms, substantial shifts in spatial distribution ranges have been observed in organism groups from passively transported plankton to mobile top-predators (Beaugrand et al 2002;Atkinson et al 2008, Beaugrand et al 2009Montes-Hugo et al 2009, Block et al 2011Hazen et al 2013). In an unprecedented meta-analysis across locations and marine organism groups, Poloczanska et al (2013) (Parmesan and Yohe 2003;Chen et al 2011).…”