Predicted Climate‐Driven Bird Distribution Changes and Forecasted Conservation Conflicts in a Neotropical Savanna

Abstract

Climate-change scenarios project significant temperature changes for most of South America. We studied the potential impacts of predicted climate-driven change on the distribution and conservation of 26 broad-range birds from South America Cerrado biome (a savanna that also encompass tracts of grasslands and forests). We used 12 temperature or precipitation-related bioclimatic variables, nine niche modeling techniques, three general circulation models, and two climate scenarios (for 2030, 2065, 2099) for each species to model distribution ranges. To reach a consensus scenario, we used an ensemble-forecasting approach to obtain an average distribution for each species at each time interval. We estimated the range extent and shift of each species. Changes in range size varied across species and according to habitat dependency; future predicted range extent was negatively correlated with current predicted range extent in all scenarios. Evolution of range size under full or null dispersal scenarios varied among species from a 5% increase to an 80% decrease. The mean expected range shifts under null and full-dispersal scenarios were 175 and 200 km, respectively (range 15-399 km), and the shift was usually toward southeastern Brazil. We predicted larger range contractions and longer range shifts for forest- and grassland-dependent species than for savanna-dependent birds. A negative correlation between current range extent and predicted range loss revealed that geographically restricted species may face stronger threat and become even rarer. The predicted southeasterly direction of range changes is cause for concern because ranges are predicted to shift to the most developed and populated region of Brazil. Also, southeastern Brazil is the least likely region to contain significant dispersal corridors, to allow expansion of Cerrado vegetation types, or to accommodate creation of new reserves.

Climate change suggests a shift of H5N1 risk in migratory birds

“…These changes will lead to different patterns of HPAI H5N1 transmission and outbreaks among migratory birds. On one hand, due to more frequent winter mixing of migratory birds in traditional breeding and wintering areas (Hitch and Leberg, 2006;Marini et al, 2009), some species may change their role from long-to short-distance transmitters in new geographic areas. On the other hand, migration flyways may also be influenced by climate change, and new areas impacted by HPAI H5N1 outbreaks may emerge.…”

Museum collections indicate bird defaunation in a biodiversity hotspot

“…Climate change has been suggested to reduce survival rates of Neotropical bird species (Blake & Loiselle 2015) and to reduce species richness and their current ranges both in the Atlantic Forest (Anciães & Peterson 2006) and Cerrado (Marini et al 2009), as well as in several other regions in the planet (Şekercioğlu et al 2012). Although the effects of climate change on species richness composition between periods must be considered, due to lack of detailed surveying methods during the 1800s, we cannot account for climatic changes on bird communities.…”

Using ecological niche modelsto plan conservation in a changing environment: A case for the plant Chasmanthera dependens Hochst (Menispermaceae) in West Africa

“…In some cases, models suggest that protected areas may no longer maintain populations of key species, possibly the very ones that the reserves were created to protect (Araújo et al, 2004). Thorn et al (2009) and Marini et al (2009b) have also reported its usefulness in targeting conservation efforts for threatened species. Conversely, shrinking distributions and range shifts could create new refugiaareas where threatened species would be concentrated in the future (Loarie et al, 2009).…”