Predictability of European air quality: Assessment of 3 years of operational forecasts and analyses by the PREV'AIR system

Honoré, Cécile; Rouïl, Laurence; Vautard, Robert; Beekmann, Matthias; Bessagnet, Bertrand; Dufour, Anne; Elichegaray, C.; Flaud, J.‐M.; Malherbe, Laure; Meleux, F.; Menut, Laurent; Martin, Daniel S.; Peuch, Aline; Peuch, Vincent-Henri; Poisson, N.

doi:10.1029/2007jd008761

Cited by 155 publications

(122 citation statements)

References 52 publications

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“…The model has been applied to simulate and analyse pollution episodes at regional Hodzic et al, 2006) and urban scale Coll et al, 2005), to analyse the sensitivity to anthropogenic (Menut et al, 2003) and biogenic emissions Curci et al, 2009) for long-term ozone trends analysis , and for diagnostics or inverse modelling of emissions Deguillaume et al, 2007;Konovalov et al, 2006Konovalov et al, , 2008Pison et al, 2007). The model has also been used for several years for operational forecast of pollutant levels over Western Europe (Honoré et al, 2008;http://www.prevair.org).…”

Section: Chimere Chemistry-transport Modelmentioning

confidence: 99%

A modelling study of photochemical regimes over Europe: robustness and variability

2010

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Abstract. The variability of the relative sensitivity of photochemical ozone formation to volatile organic compounds (VOC) and NO x emissions, the chemical regime, over Europe during summers 2001 to 2003 is simulated with a regional scale transport-chemistry model. The robustness and variability of chemical regimes is shown. A VOC sensitive regime over North-Western Europe and a mainly NO x sensitive regime over the Mediterranean basin and Eastern Europe are found, confirming earlier published results. The chemical regime time variability, its robustness with respect to several environmental factors (seasonality, interannual variability) and with respect to model uncertainty are thoroughly analysed. For the regions with well pronounced chemical regimes over North-Western Europe and the Mediterranean, the chemical regime occurrence only slightly depends on the ozone target considered -daily ozone or O x (= O 3 + NO 2 ) maximum or mean, AOT's, SOMO35, . . . . For these regions, differences between particular years and summer months are weak, day to day variability is significant but does not change the occurrence of one or another chemical regime. On the contrary, over North-Eastern Germany, the chemical regime changes form one day to another and is also dependent on the ozone target chosen. Expected decreases in anthropogenic NO x emissions over Europe since the last and for the next few decades have shifted and will shift chemical regimes to more NO x sensitive. The predictive skill of chemical regime indicator species is made evident at continental scale, extending their spatial range of applicability with respect to earlier studies. Several sensitivity tests were performed in order to account for major sources of model uncertainty. With the Correspondence to: M. Beekmann (matthias.beekmann@lisa.u-pec.fr) exception of regions near ship tracks over the Mediterranean basin, the spatial pattern of chemical regimes appears to be robust with respect to model uncertainty for all cases tested.

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Section: Chimere Chemistry-transport Modelmentioning

confidence: 99%

A modelling study of photochemical regimes over Europe: robustness and variability

2010

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“…For PM 10 , correlations are lower ranging from 0.55 to 0.35, stressing the gap of knowledge compared to gaseous species. For aerosols, biases are negative due to a lack in coarse particles concentrations other unquantified sources and badly modeled processes such as the secondary organic aerosols (SOA) formation (Honoré et al, 2008). For CALIOPE, its administrative structure merges universities and governmental authorities (the Barcelona Supercomputing Center (BSC), the CIEMAT, the Earth Sciences Institute "Jaume Almera" (IJA-CSIC) and the CEAM Foundation), moving it currently to an "operational" status.…”

Section: Experimental and Operational Forecasting Systemsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Atmospheric composition forecasting in Europe

Menut

Bessagnet

2010

Ann. Geophys.

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Abstract.The atmospheric composition is a societal issue and, following new European directives, its forecast is now recommended to quantify the air quality. It concerns both gaseous and particles species, identified as potential problems for health. In Europe, numerical systems providing daily air quality forecasts are numerous and, mostly, operated by universities. Following recent European research projects (GEMS, PROMOTE), an organization of the air quality forecast is currently under development. But for the moment, many platforms exist, each of them with strengths and weaknesses. This overview paper presents all existing systems in Europe and try to identify the main remaining gaps in the air quality forecast knowledge. As modeling systems are now able to reasonably forecast gaseous species, and in a lesser extent aerosols, the future directions would concern the use of these systems with ensemble approaches and satellite data assimilation. If numerous improvements were recently done on emissions and chemistry knowledge, improvements are still needed especially concerning meteorology, which remains a weak point of forecast systems. Future directions will also concern the use of these forecast tools to better understand and quantify the air pollution impact on health.

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“…CHIMERE has been extensively validated with surface and airborne measurements for the different scales (Schmidt et al, 2001;Blond and Vautard, 2004;Menut et al, 2000;Vautard et al, 2003;Blond et al, 2007;Honoré et al, 2008). As an example, the averaged bias for daily ozone maxima over Europe is smaller than 10% (Honoré et al, 2008). A detail description of the model is available on the web (http://euler.lmd.polytechnique.fr/chimere/).…”

Section: Model Descriptionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Significant discrepancies for a coastal site are not surprising. Honoré et al (2008) stressed a general problem for the score of the continental version of CHIMERE at coastal sites for simulating daily ozone maxima. A large bias appears for 2 stations (Waldhof and Brotjacklriegel) with simulations larger by a factor between 2 and 3.…”

Section: Chimere Evaluation With Hcho Surface Measurementsmentioning

confidence: 99%

SCIAMACHY formaldehyde observations: constraint for isoprene emission estimates over Europe?

et al. 2009

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Abstract. Formaldehyde (HCHO) is an important intermediate compound in the degradation of volatile organic compounds (VOCs) in the troposphere. Sources of HCHO are largely dominated by its secondary production from VOC oxidation, methane and isoprene being the main precursors in unpolluted areas. As a result of the moderate lifetime of HCHO, its spatial distribution is determined by reactive hydrocarbon emissions. We focus here on Europe and investigate the influence of the different emissions on HCHO tropospheric columns with the CHIMERE chemical transport model in order to interpret the comparisons between SCIA-MACHY and simulated HCHO columns. Europe was never specifically studied before for these purposes using satellite observations. The bias between measurements and model is less than 20% on average. The differences are discussed according to the errors on the model and the observations and remaining discrepancies are attributed to a misrepresentation of biogenic emissions. This study requires the characterisation of: (1) the model errors and performances concerning formaldehyde. The errors on the HCHO columns, mainly related to chemistry and mixed emission types, are evaluated to 2×10 15 molecule/cm 2 and the model performances evaluated using surface measurements are satisfactory (∼13%); (2) the observation errors that define the needs in spatial and temporal averaging for meaningful comparisons. Using SCIAMACHY observations as constraint for biogenic isoprene emissions in an inverse modelling scheme reduces their uncertainties by about a factor of two in region of intense emissions. The retrieved correction factors for the isoprene emissions range from a factor of 0.15 (North Africa) to a factor of 2 (Poland, the United Kingdom) depending on the regions.

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Predictability of European air quality: Assessment of 3 years of operational forecasts and analyses by the PREV'AIR system

Cited by 155 publications

References 52 publications

A modelling study of photochemical regimes over Europe: robustness and variability

A modelling study of photochemical regimes over Europe: robustness and variability

Atmospheric composition forecasting in Europe

SCIAMACHY formaldehyde observations: constraint for isoprene emission estimates over Europe?

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