Abstract:This paper investigates the quarter-ahead predictability of Brazil, Mexico, Philippines and Turkey credit spreads for short and long maturity bonds during two separate periods preceding and following the Lehman Brothers' default. A model based on the current country-specic credit spread curve predicts no better than the random walk and slope regression benchmarks. Extensions with the global yield curve factors and short-term interest rate volatility notably outperform the benchmark models post-Lehman. Our ndin… Show more
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