Predicción matemática de la relación marginal capital producto anual con base en una metodología fundamentada en la caminata al azar probabilística

Abstract

It has been shown that the variability of the marginal capital product ratiois what determines the growth rate of economies according to Harrod's model; therefore, it is important to predict its behavior. This paper develops a methodology based on probabilistic random walk to predict the annual marginal capital product ratio of Colombia for the year 2017 based on information from the Penn World Table database from 1993 to 2016. It was found that this variable has underlying mathematical orders, which allows its prediction with an accuracy of 97.69%.