Precipitation variations and shifts over time: Implication on Windhoek city water supply

Shikangalah, Rosemary; Mapani, Benjamin

doi:10.1016/j.pce.2019.03.005

“…(b) Kuzikus site: D. cinerea growth ring responsiveness to temperature, precipitation, and aridity (climatic factors affecting tree growth the most) moisture (precipitation) and external leaf water vapor deficit (humidity) (Woodborne et al 2015). In Namibia, the wet (rain) season used to start at the beginning of November four decades ago; and there has been a slow but gradual and systematic shift to mid-December in the past decade (Shikangalah and Mapani 2019). Such information is available in precipitation and tree ring growth records (Shikangalah et Fig.…”

Section: Lessons Learnt From Arid and Semi-arid Savannasmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Current scientific, observational, and anecdotal data show that climate change is now a well-observed phenomenon in most parts of the world (IPCC 2007(IPCC , 2015Shikangalah and Mapani 2019). Traditional livelihoods of subsistence farming, food security, water security, and cultural organizational patterns are likely to be, and some are already impacted by effects of Climate change.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…A number of authors have predicted that a quarter of the world's population will experience severe water scarcity within the first quarter of the next century and approximately a billion people in arid regions will face absolute water scarcity by 2025 (Seckler et al 1999;Ruth et al 2007). Water demand in urban areas is constantly on the upswing in Africa, Namibia, included (Mapani 2005;Shikangalah and Mapani 2019). The water demand is anticipated to rise by 50% between 2010 and 2030 (Lafforgue 2016).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Dichrostachys cinerea Growth Rings as Natural Archives for Climatic Variation in Namibia

Mapani

¹

,

Shikangalah

²

,

Mapaure

³

et al. 2021

African Handbook of Climate Change Adaptation

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0

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Global Circulation Models (GCMs) are used to forecast climate change in Southern Africa, and the evidence shows that the region is going to warm up by up to 2° by the year 2050. Namibia is one of the driest countries in Southern Africa and is at a high risk of becoming much drier than current situation by 57%. Very few studies have been carried out in Southern Africa to show actual impacts of climate change. Practical applicability of GCMs at a local spatial scale remains limited due to the coarse nature of the models. Hence, improvement of the GCMs must begin with better understanding of the local microclimates and how they respond to regional circulation patterns. In many regions of Southern Africa, the lack of potential tools to access old climatic records precludes the estimation of climate trends beyond 100 years. In spite of these impediments, there are areas with excellent tree species such as Dichrostachys cinerea that are able to be used as climatic archives for specific time periods. In this chapter, the study shows that the combination of tree ring chronologies and precipitation records is a powerful methodology in climate modeling in the southern hemisphere and reveals nuances that show climate change. The evaluation of data from tree rings coupled with precipitation trends reveals signals that show that climate has indeed been changing over the past ten decades and will have a negative impact on livelihoods. These data can now be used in predictive models that can be used to project future scenarios and assist policy makers and planners to see how climate will evolve in the next 50–60 years.

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“…Additionally the stomatal conductance is controlled by the relative availability of edaphic moisture (precipitation) and external leaf water vapor deficit (humidity) (Woodborne et al 2015). In Namibia, the wet (rain) season used to start at the beginning of November four decades ago; and there has been a slow but gradual and systematic shift to mid-December in the past decade (Shikangalah and Mapani 2019). Such information is available in precipitation and tree ring growth records (Shikangalah et al 2020).…”

Section: Lessons Learnt From Arid and Semi-arid Savannasmentioning

confidence: 99%

Dichrostachys cinerea Growth Rings as Natural Archives for Climatic Variation in Namibia

Mapani

¹

,

Shikangalah

²

,

Mapaure

³

et al. 2020

African Handbook of Climate Change Adaptation

Self Cite

0

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

Global Circulation Models (GCMs) are used to forecast climate change in Southern Africa, and the evidence shows that the region is going to warm up by up to 2° by the year 2050. Namibia is one of the driest countries in Southern Africa and is at a high risk of becoming much drier than current situation by 57%. Very few studies have been carried out in Southern Africa to show actual impacts of climate change. Practical applicability of GCMs at a local spatial scale remains limited due to the coarse nature of the models. Hence, improvement of the GCMs must begin with better understanding of the local microclimates and how they respond to regional circulation patterns. In many regions of Southern Africa, the lack of potential tools to access old climatic records precludes the estimation of climate trends beyond 100 years. In spite of these impediments, there are areas with excellent tree species such as Dichrostachys cinerea that are able to be used as climatic archives for specific time periods. In this chapter, the study shows that the combination of tree ring chronologies and precipitation records is a powerful methodology in climate modeling in the southern hemisphere and reveals nuances that show climate change. The evaluation of data from tree rings coupled with precipitation trends reveals signals that show that climate has indeed been changing over the past ten decades and will have a negative impact on livelihoods. These data can now be used in predictive models that can be used to project future scenarios and assist policy makers and planners to see how climate will evolve in the next 50–60 years.

show abstract

“…Climatic conditions are characterised by erratic rainfall and recurring drought periods [12][13][14], reinforcing flood events, periods of drought and the rate at which evaporation might be occurring. Due to dry climate conditions that are so variable, the dense tropical forests, especially the indigenous forest, are becoming rare while bush encroachment is slowly taking over [15,16].…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Dendrochronology in Namibia: A Review

Shikangalah

¹

2020

IJESNR

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More than 64% of Namibia's land is occupied by the savanna ecosystems which are vulnerable to climate change and variability. These ecosystems partly consist of forest ecosystem patches which are prime sources of many livelihoods in the country. The effects of climate change are likely to drive the majority of the country's population to poverty if these resources are not sustainably managed. Therefore an understanding of forest dynamics and their responses to climate is important. Dendrochronology is a study that provides time-series data of climate change and variability, and the responses of trees to such changes. The data are used to reconstruct past events of climate and also to forecast possibilities. Dendrochronological studies have been carried out in Namibia, however, a review of such studies is lacking. This study thus aimed at closing this gap and carried out a literature review on the dendrochronological studies in Namibia. The review showed that the field of dendrochronology is relatively new and has been less applied in Namibia. There is a need for further dendrochronological studies in order to understand how the country can adapt better under the current and forecasted climate regimes. A focus on the marginal forests, encroachers and trees that are of indigenous use, is recommended. In cases of the absence of clear ring formation, which might be the case in arid to hyper arid, the use of staple isotopes is recommended.

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Precipitation variations and shifts over time: Implication on Windhoek city water supply

Cited by 8 publications

References 42 publications

Dichrostachys cinerea Growth Rings as Natural Archives for Climatic Variation in Namibia

Dichrostachys cinerea Growth Rings as Natural Archives for Climatic Variation in Namibia

Dichrostachys cinerea Growth Rings as Natural Archives for Climatic Variation in Namibia

Dendrochronology in Namibia: A Review

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